US Open 2014 Men's Betting: Murray looks great value to defeat Tsonga

Sean is backing Murray to defeat Tsonga on Monday

Andy Murray is in action in New York on Monday and Sean Calvert fancies the Brit's chances of getting the better of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga...

It's a great-looking card for the fans at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Centre on Monday, with Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka just some of the stars on show in New York today.

And we head into the second week proper in great shape after another two winners on Sunday thanks to Grigor Dimitrov's 3-1 victory over David Goffin after the Bulgarian had dropped the opener 0-6.

Then Gael Monfils provided one of the more comfortable winners of the week with a routine straight sets win over Richard Gasquet to make it 13 wins from 17 daily bets in week one.

Back to today Murray takes on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in a quick repeat of their recent clash in Toronto that the Frenchman won when Murray rather handed it to him on a plate after being in control of the match.

Today's price of around 1.784/5 seems a pretty good bet to me in the circumstances of Murray being a 1.422/5 shot a few weeks ago and I'm not too sure that the result in Canada should have this much bearing on the prices.

Tsonga's win in the Rogers Cup has clearly given him some much needed belief after the Frenchman appeared to be sliding inexorably down the rankings and out of the top-20.

He certainly seemed to have lost his famous sparkle and enthusiasm seemed to be on the wane, but wins over Murray, Djokovic, Grigor Dimitrov and Roger Federer put a stop to all that and elevated Jo back inside the top-10.

But over a best of five sets I can't seem him having the game to get past Murray, unless we see the Murray that turned up for his Wimbledon quarter final against Dimitrov.

Confidence in the Brit isn't high, based on this price and for me there are still question marks surrounding his fitness, although he says he's 100 percent fit right now.

Tsonga's early opponents here in New York have been kind, with the limited clay courter Pablo Carrreno Busta, clay specialist Juan Monaco and Challenger level Aleksandr Nedovesov and we'll see if Toronto was a flash in the pan today.

I personally suspect it was and in any case Murray's great record against this opponent would have to make him a decent punt at today's price.

Nine wins to Tsonga's two tell the tale of how this match up has gone and I think Murray is a bit of value here.

One of my pre-draw outside tips Tommy Robredo takes on Wawrinka on Monday and this has the makings of a tough battle, with the Spaniard at a disadvantage today due to the Swiss having played one match fewer this fortnight.

Stan's last opponent Blaz Kavcic pulled out, while Tommy was sweating it out in a night match with Nick Kyrgios, so the clear physical advantage should lie with Wawrinka.

But Robredo is nothing if not a battler and with quarter final points to defend from last year you can bet if he's physically able to he'll give it his absolute all and it might well be good enough.

Wawrinka is far from a good thing here and he has found Robredo a tough nut to crack often in the past, with Tommy leading the career series 6-2, including two of their three meetings in the last year or so.

Stan won a tight three setter in Melbourne in January, but Stan was in prime form then and you would have to say he isn't right now.

Hence the price of around 1.528/15 on Wawrinka, but I prefer the over 38.5 total games in this one at a bigger price of around 1.748/11.

Recommended Bets
Back Murray to beat Tsonga at 1.784/5
Back over 38.5 total games in Wawrinka/Robredo at 1.748/11

Tennis profit and loss – 2014 season

Profit based on 10 stake per bet = + 1073.80