US Open 2014 Men's Betting: Humid conditions to suit Robredo over Kyrgios

Robredo can overcome the challenge of Kyrgios tonight

Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic are both in action on Saturday in New York and Sean Calvert is back to select the best bets at the US Open today...

Friday was the first losing day of the 2014 US Open so far and it all hinged on one moment when Richard Gasquet blew a 3-0 lead in set one to Paulo Lorenzi.

The mercurial Frenchman looked set to go close to my 6-2 prediction in set one, which in turn would have set up the handicap bet too, but he had one of his dips and allowed Lorenzi back in the set in what was a nervy and negative start. 

Gasquet ended up failing on 14 of his 18 break point opportunities in all, which was the key to that one and there was more pain later when Ivo Karlovic lost in the fifth set to Marcel Granollers.

Andy Murray is back in action today, as the Brit takes on Andrey Kuznetsov at around 6pm UK time (1pm local) and he might have the best of the conditions today, with the humidity set to rise to almost 80% by 9pm New York time tonight.

It'll still be humid, but only at 57% when Murray takes on the attacking Russian, who he has never met before and the injury prone Kuznetsov has the kind of game that could worry an off-colour Murray.

I wouldn't be backing the Murray 3-0 here, as I feel Kuznetsov could nick a set and he's around 2.56/4 to do so on a court that Andy has had many problems on in the past. 

Novak Djokovic is Murray's likely last eight opponent and the Serb faces what could be and should be his toughest test so far in the form of the unpredictable American Sam Querrey.

Interestingly, Novak has dished out a bagel to Querrey no fewer than four times in their eight meetings, and the Serb is a tempting 5.59/2 to do so again today.

They are scheduled for the same time as Murray, but on Ashe, where Murray is on Armstrong, and it's very hard to trust Querrey against a top player even though he did play well himself last round.

Querrey beat a lacklustre Guillermo Garcia Lopez, but he's 3-21 against top five ranked opposition and he generally gets beaten convincingly and his tendency to drop his head and sulk sees him lose sets by wide margins often.

All of which leads me to the minus 8.5 games on the handicap for Novak here at 1.910/11, as one comfortable set for the world number one, who has also dished out three 6-1 sets to Querrey, should do it.

I'm also going to take a chance on one of my tournament outsiders today in Tommy Robredo to come out on top in what will be a real physical battle with Nick Kyrgios in the night match.

It should be extremely humid by the time these guys get to the court at 9pm local time approximately and for me Robredo, despite a five setter the previous round, will grind this one out.

Kyrgios won't have played a best of five set match in conditions like this before, with the only comparison his five set loss to Benoit Paire in Melbourne in January, and with a bad arm too the Aussie may well fold if he doesn't get this done in straight sets.

Conditions will be slower at night and with the very high humidity too this match seems to fit Tommy's game more than Nick's today.

The layers have this one as 50/50 more or less, but I'm happy to side with the battling Spaniard, who excels in long matches, here at 1.9620/21.

Recommended Bets
Back Djokovic -8.5 games to beat Querrey at 1.910/11
Back Robredo to beat Kyrgios at 1.9620/21

Tennis profit and loss – 2014 season

Profit based on 10 stake per bet = + 1020.30