Switzerland v England: Stalemate success for the Three Lions

Can Roy dig out a draw?

The Three Lions are wounded and a draw would be a very welcome result from their Group E opener in Switzerland. Bback them to do just that, says Joe Dyer...

Switzerland v England
Monday September 8
Live on ITV1 

Switzerland 

It's a new era for Swiss football with their first match of the Euro 2016 qualifying campaign also being their debut fixture under Vladimir Petkovic as head coach, the former Lazio manager taking over from Ottmar Hitzfeld. Switzerland enjoyed a good World Cup, qualifying from their group behind France and only exiting the competition to an Angel di Maria goal two minutes from the end of extra time of their last 16 clash with Argentina. 

This is a young Swiss team but they'll know a positive result here will set them fair for a good qualification campaign where they look a decent bet to me to win the group at 3.02/1.

England 

Oh dear. Following a desperate World Cup campaign the Three Lions did little to get the public onside with Wednesday night's laboured 1-0 win over Norway. Manager Roy Hodgson showed signs of his increasing frustration with the press when swearing during a post-match conference after it was put to him that England had just two shots on target. We can argue over the finer details of that stat - Hodgson's contention being that shots were blocked etc - but there wasn't much to like about the national side's showing. 

Worse still, striker Daniel Sturridge, one of the few bright spots of recent England games, will miss the game and the next three weeks of action after suffering a thigh injury in training.

Match Odds 

There has been a gamble on Switzerland since the market opened with the home side around 2.68/5 to win having traded at 3.052/1, punters moving for the Swiss following England's poor performance and the loss of Sturridge. 

And, putting patriotism aside, it has to be said they are a tempting price. 

There's a lot of negativity around the England side, both on and off the pitch, and it's hard to convince yourself that they can pick up a win in the opening game - the hardest fixture - of their campaign. There has already been talk of playing for a draw, with the result being that the stalemate trades at a skinny 3.259/4. 

If Switzerland were still managed by Hitzfeld I'd be confident the home side could beat England for the first time since 1981, but there is bound to be a settling-in period under a new manager whereas the visitors at least have continuity under Hodgson. The former Switzerland manager has made the Three Lions hard to beat - Opta tell us England have lost just one of their last 13 international matches away from home (W7 D5 L1).

The one thing England can do to a decent standard is defend and they certainly have enough about them to secure a 0-0 or 1-1 draw.

The standard stalemate price for an evenly matched contest is around 3.55/2 so we have to accept slightly skinnier odds than usual but it does look the likeliest result.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals 

The negativity has crept in to the goals markets and unders trades at just 1.584/7. That is not a price for me, and given I'm backing the draw in anticipation of a low-scoring stalemate (which offers far better returns) so I'm steering clear of this market.

Sidemarket Selection - Halftime Score 

You'll know by now that I'm keen on a close-fought, low-scoring affair and another way to play that eventuality is to back the game to be goalless at halftime. 

Of course, I could be accused of putting all my eggs in one basket, and it's up to you whether you're comfortable with making two wagers on very similar eventualities, but at 2.56/4 and bigger it'd be a tidy winner. 

Recommended Bets
Back the draw @ 3.259/4
Back 0-0 halftime score @ 2.56/4 or bigger