понедельник, 1 сентября 2014 г.

Premier League 3pm Kick-Offs: Visit of Black Cats won't change QPR's luck

Gus Poyet's Sunderland look a decent price to win at QPR

Manchester City make their season debut at the traditional kick-off time of 3pm and Mike Norman predicts an easy victory for the champions, but who else does our man fancy on Saturday afternoon...

Man City 1.192/11 v Stoke 21.020/1; The Draw 8.415/2

This should be a stroll in the park for Manchester City and I can only see one outcome for the home side - a convincing victory.

Some of the Opta stats are quite frightening if you're a Stoke fan. Man City have scored at least two goals in each of their last 10 Premier League games for example. Or the one that tells us that the Potters have played 12 Premier League games in Manchester (City and United combined), and lost all 12!

I expect Mark Hughes' men to be a mid-table side this season but they've been a bit toothless in the two league games they've played so far; Bojan looks a bit lightweight and far from a Premier League player in my opinion. Only time will tell of course.

With this in mind, and the Citizens almost certain to find the net, then I believe backing a Man City win without conceding a goal at just below evens gives us a very landable wager.

Recommended Bet
Back Man Ciy Win to Nil @ 1.910/11

Newcastle 1.768/11 v Crystal Palace 5.79/2; The Draw 3.814/5

Newcastle performed well in their opening game defeat to Man City, and quite easily could have won at Villa Park last weekend before eventually settling for a goalless draw. Alan Pardew looks to have bought reasonably well; he's happy with his squad, and he can look forward to a decent season.

A decent season will include beating the likes of Crystal Palace on home soil however, and while it's always dangerous backing against a club that have just appointed a new manager I'm fairly confident that the Magpies will deliver.

The Eagles won convincingly in the League Cup in midweek and that will have restored a bit of confidence, but they were torn apart at home to West Ham last Saturday (could easily have conceded four or five) and it will take a minor miracle for Neil Warnock to go in there and turn their form around instantly.

What seals the deal for an anticpated home win however is the fact that Opta tell us that Newcastle have won each of their last four league games against Palace without conceding a single goal. I nearly went for the home win to nil again, but I'll be happy just to see Pardew's men collect all three points.

Recommended Bet
Back Newcastle to Win @ 1.768/11

QPR 2.56/4 v Sunderland 3.3512/5; The Draw 3.412/5

This is a clash that if we could take as going to how each club finished last season then there would only be one winner. Sunderland are that team of course, and I'm more than happy to back them at 3.3512/5.

The Black Cats finished last term in miraculous fashion, winning at grounds such as Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford to eventually avoid relegation having looked dead and buried with just weeks to go. QPR weren't so great, stuttering towards the end of season with a place in the play-offs guaranteed, though to their credit they lifted themselves to win those play-offs.

So what about this term? Well it's been an awful start for Harry Redknapp's men; three deafeats on the spin without scoring a single goal and eliminated from the League Cup in midweek at the hands of League Two outfit Burton Albion.

Gus Poyet's men on the other hand are unbeaten, drawing with Manchester United last Sunday before winning convincingly at Birmingham in midweek. So the signs are that 2013/14's end-of-season form could be continued, and if that's the case then Sunderland look an outstanding bet.

I'm please to say that Dan Thomas agrees with me in this week's Editors' Betting Battle.

Recommended Bet
Back Sunderland to Win @ 3.3512/5 (Best Bet)

Swansea 1.910/11 v West Brom 4.84/1; The Draw 3.711/4

A really tricky game for me to call this one, and I'm going to sit on the fence and go for the draw.

Actually, I'm not sure sitting on the fence is a description I've ever liked. If you don't fancy either side to win, and therefore you believe the game will finish all-square, then that's quite a gutsy call to make as 99% of the time the 'draw' is never the favourite in terms of odds.

Swansea are three wins from three this season; two coming in the Premier League so full credit to Garry Monk and his men. But they were far from convincing at home to Burnley last week (how the Clarets didn't score I'll never know) and I sense that Albion will present an even tougher test.

The Baggies have started their league campaign with two draws and were full value for the point that they came away from Saint Mary's last week with. I know not everyone is convinced by Alan Irvine or his signings but I'm quite positive about both - I can see West Brom comfortably beating the drop this term and being difficult to beat against clubs with a similar ability to Swansea.

Opta tell us that the Baggies drew more games (15) in the Premier League last season than any other club, and I'm of the opinion that they can turn their current tally of two draws this term in to three at the Liberty Stadium. You won't catch me sitting on the fence!

Recommended Bet
Back The Draw @ 3.711/4

West Ham 2.8415/8 v Southampton 2.767/4; The Draw 3.45n/a

My big hunch here is that no way should West Ham be a bigger price than Southampton to win this game on home soil, so I was delighted to see some Opta stats really back up my hunch.

Let's deal with current form first. True, Southampton performed really well against Liverpool in their opening game but they fell quite a long way below that standard at home to West Brom last weekend.

Of course every side is allowed a below par performance without making them a bad team overnight, but I'd be more inclined to read last week's effort than the one at Anfield as a measure of what we can expect from the Saints this season.

The Hammers were hugely disappointing in losing to Sheffield United in the League Cup, regardless of the side that Sam Allardyce fielded, but in the league they've done very well so far - narrowly, and perhaps unfortunately, losing to Spurs before comfortably beating Crystal Palace last Saturday.

I'm not sure how many clubs I've got finishing mid-table, but West Ham are another one!

Opta tell us that the Hammers have lost none of their last five Premier League meetings with Southampton and that they've conceded less than a goal per game during their last nine home matches. The Saints have lost three of their last five away encounters and I'm backing West Ham at the odds to inflict another away loss on Ronald Koeman's men.

Recommended Bet
Back West Ham to Win @ 2.8415/8

Premier League 2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 9 pts
Returned: 3.6 pts
P/L: - 5.4 pts

*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet

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