The MK Dons much sought-after midfielder Dele Alli (left) in action
Alan Dudman returns for a full set of League One fixtures on Tuesday night, believing that Sheffield United and the MK Dons are decent prices to make a profit in midweek...
MK Dons 2.01/1 v Bradford City 4.216/5, the draw 3.613/5
Perhaps the layers are worried about the impressive away form of Bradford so far this campaign as to the reason why a home victory is priced up at evens. The MK Dons are currently third in League One with 13 points and have lost just once so far, plus they have the added bonus of THAT Capital One Cup victory against Manchester United - so do they really warrant a price of 2.01/1 this Tuesday night for a win?
Let's touch on that away form of the Bantams however, as they have collected two wins (against Rochdale and Crewe) and a draw (0-0 with Walsall), and this reads as the polar opposite as to their current wellbeing at Valley Parade - losing their last three. Both sets of circumstances can be explained. Firstly, they have been in trouble with set-pieces recently, having conceded four goals in that manner in their previous two matches.
Saturday was a classic example of City's problems, going 1-0 up against Swindon, but defensively falling apart to a couple of Jon Obika goals. The absence of centre-back Andrew Davies has caused this panic in the back-line, as he deals comfortably with any aerial trouble. However, he's ruled out for another few weeks with a broken arm, and fellow defender Alan Sheehan is suspended.
The other poser for Bantams boss Phil Parkinson is a tactical one. On the road he has employed a diamond, which has worked well against lesser teams. However, on home soil they are looking vulnerable out wide as their full-backs look exposed, and if they use the formation here, the hosts will enjoy a lot of the ball out wide.
Back to the MK Dons, who have won three of their last four, including Saturday's 5-3 win at Barnsley. In fact, the Dons were 5-0 up on 82 minutes and actually looked a bit shaky in the opening part of the match, but they have some really classy players and manager Karl Robinson singled out Mark Randall for special praise - and Robinson definitely is a man that likes to do that.
In short, the hosts have an excellent team for this level, and loan signing Benik Afobe has started to score already. Although raw, the Arsenal youngster chases in behind and runs the channels well. Whilst teenage midfielder Dele Alli has again been on the news this week, with the Dons youngster linked with a move to a Premier League club - unsurprising given the level of some of his performances.
Best Cash Out/ In Play Trade
Because the hosts hit five on Saturday, immediately the over 2.5 goals radar starts to wobble, and this already trades at 1.84/5 - which looks again a bit too short. Out of three of the home games at the Stadium MK, only one has been over 2.5, whilst Bradford (who admittedly scored five against Crewe and Rochdale), might need to shore up their back line rather than think about goals.
The unders look a 'price thing', although I would get out of the bet before the second-half. Whilst the 1-0 home win appeals on a slightly lesser scale.
Summary
The MK Dons welcome back Kyle McFadzean after suspension, and I wonder if Robinson will start him to deal with the aerial threat of Bradford's James Hansen. In fact, five players were ruled out of the Dons victory at Barnsley, a game in which truly was a statement of intent. Occasionally the Dons can look a bit shaky in the opening 20 minutes, and they appear to be slightly vulnerable on the counter, but I think the 2.01/1 on offer for a home win looks an excellent price.
Recommended Bet
Back the MK Dons to win @ 2.01/1
Colchester United 3.39/4 v Sheffield United 2.35/4, the draw 3.55/2
Sheffield United are slowly clicking into gear, and their current run reminds me of the astonishing amount of clean sheets the Blades kept in the second-half of last season. This is a big factor in to how manager Nigel Clough works - he loves clean sheets. From February 2014 to the end of last term, the Yorkshire club had kept 15 clean sheets (including games in the sparkling FA Cup run). Therefore once Clough had taken over, signed some new players, he gradually drilled in to this team how important the defensive play was.
I think there are now signs of this. They are now unbeaten in five (all comps and four in League One), and they are grinding out victories in tough style, apart from a terrific match at Preston. Saturday's 1-0 home success against Rochdale was a reminder of how they developed last season under Clough, and those three points took their tally to 10 from six games.
Midfielder Jose Baxter can be classed as 'false 10', and United often use two up front. New recruit Michael Higdon feeds off crosses, whilst the width of Jamal Campbell-Ryce offers the Blades more of a threat.
Meanwhile in Essex, Colchester recently parted company with manager Joe Dunne, and new boss Tony Humes has managed to secure four points from their previous two matches - but I still think they will struggle to stay up - and I tipped them to go down in my season preview.
The U's gained an unlikely 0-2 success at Leyton Orient on Saturday - a match that could have severe repercussions for O's boss Russell Slade - who is reportedly one game away from the sack. That was Colchester's first victory of the season, and it came on the counter-attack. However, Orient were well and truly shocking defensively, and Freddie Sears took advantage by making one and scoring one.
Colchester will be without the services of skipper Magnus Okuonghae this Tuesday, but they actually looked better when he was sent-off at Orient at the weekend, as Humes used two banks of four and looked far more solid.
Best Cash Out/ In Play Trade
The hosts have kept two clean sheets coming in to this match, and Sheffield United have already gained two 1-0 wins so far. The under 2.5 goals is very short at 1.758/11 so it will be worth looking elsewhere for low scoring bets - especially using the HT markets. However, this looks perfect for a trade at the Blades winning 0-1 here, which should be taken to 'green up' at 8.7n/a.
Summary
The hosts have struggled a bit at the Weston Homes Community so far, losing to Peterborough and Doncaster and gaining their only home point against Oldham. But Sheffield United were excellent away at Preston recently, in a match that was on a par with Championship standard, and they continue creating chances away from home, therefore we can hopefully net a decent price again on one of the stronger teams in the division.
Recommended Bet
Back Sheffield United to win @ 2.35/4 (best bet)
Rochdale 2.56/4 v Walsall 3.052/1, the draw 3.3512/5
Could this be the draw bet with Walsall on Tuesday night? Well, having risked a point this way on the Saddlers last Saturday, I might take the safer route and look to utilise a lay on the hosts. I feel slightly guilty at that, as I like Dale's manager Keith Hill, a tremendously open character who always gives forthright views after matches in his press conferences. He's the only boss I know so far at this level (or indeed any level) that has the ability of telepathy. Honest, he did say recently he had a telepathic understanding with Jack O'Connell - players yes, but managers?
It's been an up and down season so far at Spotland. Rochdale have won just twice in seven (losing three times), and have collected three blank scoring games whilst hitting five and four elsewhere. You can see they are unpredictable.
On Saturday, Hill's men lost out to Sheffield United 1-0 at Bramall Lane but they were set up quite offensively and certainly had some opportunities. However they found their scoring boots previously at Crawley (who were dreadful) by beating the Reds 4-0 in Sussex, but they were giving the ball away fairly cheaply during that game and were somewhat allowed to dominate.
Rochdale are a possession team and they have played on the counter-attack, though Walsall usually play this way away from the Banks's and often are set up in a 4-4-1-1. But Walsall have the game -changer here - they have re-signed Andy Butler, a club hero and real leader.
Butler has surprisingly returned to Walsall on emergency loan, having failed to make any kind of impact at Sheffield United. His presence last Saturday was a major factor and his leadership also allowed fellow centre-back Paul Downing to have a storming game - his best of the season. The Saddlers beat Preston 3-1 at the weekend, and the Whites are a big and powerful team. The fact that Butler and Co kept out North End bodes well for the side that have already collected three 0-0 scorelines at this stage of the season.
Best In Play/ Cash out Trade
I priced up the under 2.5 goals at 1.75/7 myself before viewing the markets, and it's fairly close to that figure at the time of writing, so there is no give in that price in terms of a trade. I do like the Walsall clean sheet angle, and to back yes at 2.89/5 or thereabouts looks a very solid bet and trade, plus I would recommended viewing the Walsall double chance bet. Dean Smith's side have also drawn three games out of seven, which will alert cash out bettors on the draw.
Summary
I have swerved away from predicting a 0-0 (again), but I can honestly see it being that sort of game. However this column needs points, and there are a few reasons I want to take on Rochdale on Tuesday. Firstly, they have yet to win at Spotland this season (LLLD), and all of these matches have been under 2.5 goals. Secondly, Walsall can keep a clean sheet and are stronger now thanks to the return of Butler. I mentioned in my last column that I felt Walsall were in a false position with just four points, as they have playing OK, and this is the sort of match they shouldn't lose.
Recommended Bet
Lay Rochdale @ 2.56/4
League One 2014/15 P/L (all selections one point)
- 5.12 pts
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