Coventry City manager Steven Pressley
Coventry City are back at the Ricoh Arena this Friday evening, and the Sky TV cameras will be there too. Alan Dudman looks at the best bets from that and the rest of the League One fixtures this weekend.....
Coventry City 1.9420/21 v Gillingham 4.407/2, the draw 3.7011/4
Friday 19:45, Live on Sky Sports 2
The Sky Blues finally return to the Ricoh Arena on Friday night, and the cameras will be there to witness a team playing in the stadium for the first time in 503 days. At the time of writing all 15,000 tickets had been sold, and manager Steven Pressley is eagerly awaiting the evening fixture by saying: "It's a chance for us to show the world what Coventry City Football Club means to the city."
The atmosphere will be rocking, and might rock more than Bruce Springsteen and his E Street Band. 37,262 fans turned up for that event in June 2013, incidentally the largest since the venue was built. But surely Pressley trumps 'the Boss' every time?
This is my first mention of City this term, and they made 10 summer signings plus the recent deadline deals of Seb Hines and Frank Nouble. The former arrives from Middlesbrough and can play right-back or centre-half, and gives Pressley plenty of options and versatility for his 3-5-2. Nouble has signed from Ipswich, and adds to the home team's striker ranks. The 22-year-old is quick, mobile and powerful.
Sometimes in betting, you have to control your emotions, but the head is definitely with the heart here, and the hosts look a sound price at 1.9520/21.
I fear the Coventry of last term would have been about 1.758/11, but they are badly missing the pace of striker Callum Wilson, who really suited their counter-attacking style. However, Josh McQuoid and Simeon Jackson are both excellent signings who have played at a higher level, and I have always liked McQuoid when I watched him play a couple of times for Bournemouth.
I made Gillingham one of my bets in last week's column at home to Crewe, and they scored twice in a comfortable 2-0 win, although the Alex are utterly abysmal at the moment, so it was expected. The Gills have collected seven points from five matches so far, but I am still to be convinced by their manager Peter Taylor.
Gillingham have a strike partnership that should do some damage at this level. Danny Kedwell already has four this term, and his partnership with Cody McDonald looked good on Saturday, and they link up well. The Kent club look to be passing the ball more than last season, but they look reasonably well-drilled and hard-working.
Taylor's side arrive at the Ricoh without an away win so far, losing 4-1 and 4-2. The goals against is a big worry, and defensively they were shocking against the MK Dons on the opening day of the season.
Best Cash Out/ In Play Trade
The fact that Gillingham have conceded an alarming eight goals in two away trips, suggests the over 2.5 goals should trade shorter than the current 2.0421/20. Their defending at set-pieces and crosses can also improve, but it's an area City can take advantage. The first goalscorer market is not the easiest to have a bet in, but Coventry skipper Reda Johnson is a huge threat physically from corners, and he scored twice on the opening day of the season at Bradford. The ex-Sheffield Wednesday man should be available to back at around 16.015/1 to net first, although wouldn't be one to try and lay out!
Coventry have drawn all three of their last matches in the league, but I can't see Gillingham strong enough defensively to use that as a trade.
Summary
I can't help but feel Coventry should be a bit shorter than 1.9520/21, which clearly makes them a bet this Friday. On League form, only a point separates them in the table, but City have better players and more goal threats. Coventry's 1-1 draw at Swindon last weekend was an excellent point as Mark Cooper's side look a really good footballing outfit. Pressley called it a match between 'two outstanding teams', and with his two banks in a 3-5-2, I am hoping City can make it a perfect return to their home.
Recommended Bet
Back Coventry City to win @ 1.9520/21
Oldham Athletic 2.568/5 v Fleetwood Town 3.02/1, the draw 3.4012/5
There is another first for the column this week, with both father and son, Gary and Lee Johnson appearing in the weekly previews. It would've made a really catchy song for Cat Stevens, perhaps as a follow up to Matthew and his sibling.
I like listening to Lee (as I do Stevens), who always gives a fairly honest assessment of his team's displays, and he was very pleased with the excellent performance shown by the Latics last Saturday in beating Doncaster 2-0 at the Keepmoat. It was their first victory in five matches, although they had been a little unlucky in some of their previous games.
Oldham are a relatively young team who lost their prized asset before the transfer deadline, as forward Johnson Clarke-Harris moved to Rotherham for a club record fee, and his lightning pace will be nearly impossible to replace. Johnson has recently signed Dominic Poleon and Michael Tidser (from Rotherham), with the former having more potential rather than proven ability at this stage of his career.
I have mentioned Fleetwood on more than one occasion already this term, and quite right, because the Cod Army are second in League One with 11 points from five games. Manager Graham Alexander has got his team adjusted to League One football very quickly, and in spells, were excellent on Saturday in drawing 1-1 at home to Leyton Orient - who were one of the ante-post market leaders.
On their travels, Fleetwood have achieved victories at Scunthorpe (W2-0) and Notts County (W1-0), whilst four of their five matches in the division have been under 2.5 goals.
Best Cash Out/ In Play Trade
Taking the record of under 2.5 goals from above, this looks a definite starting point at around 1.9010/11 considering Fleetwood have only conceded two goals so far this campaign. Therefore, it will be up to Oldham to break them down being the home team, yet they have lost their big name striker. If the evens money to trade isn't sexy enough, the obvious angle is to use the draw at 3.4012/5 to engineer a 'get out' bet at around 1.9010/11. Again if we are thinking low scoring draws, 0-0 and 1-1 are the angles to consider on the correct score markets.
Summary
The two promoted teams - Chesterfield and Fleetwood have performed brilliantly so far, and it's a sign how the layers are taking no chances with Fleetwood's price at 3.02/1. The layer will have his/her price on Oldham at 2.568/5, although I am still quite fearful of their excellent passing display at Preston two starts back, in which they bossed the second-half against the (then) title favourites. However, with the visitors looking decent defensively, I will use that to have a go at the draw.
Recommended Bet
Back the draw @ 3.4012/5
Bradford City 2.186/5 v Yeovil Town 3.65n/a, the draw 3.55n/a
With Lee mentioned earlier, it's time to talk about Gary, although the start of the season hasn't been straightforward for Johnson senior. The Yeovil boss arrived 15 minutes before the kick-off during Tuesday's JPT trophy match, which all relates to a reported stand-off with the club's board. The situation clearly needs resolving but Johnson hasn't looked happy this term. He criticised his team heavily after their opening day loss to Doncaster, and for a relegated club, they look to be struggling a bit.
On the plus side, their performances have definitely improved over the previous three games, and Johnson maintains he needs more desire from his players. Saturday's 1-1 draw with Barnsley actually reads like a good result, as Barnsley look a clever and quick side, but the Glovers have only won once so far - on their travels.
The men from the west country have had injuries to deal with, as midfielder Simon Gillett is the latest blow, and fans await news regarding his knee problem. The only incoming this week has been Jack Price from Wolves, but he's only 21 and still not established.
Bradford meanwhile are going strong, and the Yorkshire club sit in fourth place just two points behind league leaders Peterborough. They've collected 10 points in their five matches so far and manager Phil Parkinson invested well over the summer. Defensively they look very organised and sound, and one of my favourite players at this level - Alan Sheehan - has started in good fashion. Sheehan has plenty of experience but a wand of a left foot, and his delivery from set-pieces will always be a huge asset with Bantams forward James Hanson who feeds off quality crosses.
City have taken the big scalp of fierce rivals Leeds United in this year's Capital One Cup, but their home form reads L1 (to Peterborough) and W1 (at home to Coventry).
Best Cash Out/ In Play Trade
The two matches at Valley Parade so far have been complete opposites this term, an under 1.5 goals affair, and an over 4.5 goals game. Added with the unpredictably of Yeovil and the reports concerning Gary Johnson and the board, this certainly looks tricky.
The correct score angle I would offer would be 2-0, as I am struggling to make a case for the visitors to score, whereas Bradford have a goal in them with the giant Hanson.
Summary
Bradford are averaging two points a game so far in League One but are still a 38.037/1 chance on the winner market. Therefore the layers are not fearing their early season run and are confident in the Bantams not figuring come April time, but the view seems to be the same for the weekend, and on their relative starts - City perhaps deserve to be on odds-on shot.
Recommended Bet
Back Bradford City to win @ 2.1411/10
League One 2014/15 P/L (all selections one point)
- 2.98 pts
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