Germany v Argentina: Unhappy homecoming for World Cup winners

World Cup winners traditionally blunder in their next fixture

The curse of the world champions has Michael Lintorn convinced that Germany won't win their friendly with Argentina...

Germany v Argentina
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1

Match Odds: Germany 1.9210/11, Argentina 4.67/2, The Draw

Seven-and-a-half weeks on from winning the World Cup, Germany compete for the first time as four-time world champions, and would you believe their four years as standard-bearers begins in Dusseldorf against the same Argentina team that they overcame in the final.

Well, not quite the same team. Gerardo "Tata" Martino has succeeded Alejandro "once of Sheffield United" Sabella as coach. Many judged Tata's season at Barcelona a failure, but his international pedigree is proven having led Paraguay to the World Cup 2010 quarter-finals (they wouldn't even qualify in 2014) and Copa America 2011 final.

The 51-year-old has hardly altered Sabella's squad, with additions Erik Lamela and Nicolas Gaitan only invited following injuries, the most high-profile of which was suffered by Lionel Messi. The lack of overhaul hints that the ceaseless "should Carlos Tevez be recalled?" debate has plenty of mileage.

Though Joachim Low remains Germany boss, the World Cup winners have changed more than their visitors for the first game of a new cycle. Striker Mario Gomez returns after Miroslav Klose retired (as did Philipp Lahm and Per Mertesacker), Marco Reus is fit and Antonio Rudiger and Sebastian Rudy receive chances.

Germany are odds-on to triumph at 1.9210/11, yet this columnist will be laying them for a number of reasons, the most prominent of which is the post-World Cup hangover.

None of the previous four winners prevailed in their follow-up match. Spain were held 1-1 in Mexico, Italy lost 0-2 at home to Croatia, Brazil flopped 0-2 when welcoming Paraguay and France drew in Austria. Germany also blew their first fixture after their last victory in 1990, sharing spoils 1-1 in Portugal.

Furthermore, there is the fact that Germany didn't actually beat Argentina in betting terms in the World Cup final; it was a draw in 90 minutes and the Albiceleste created some of the best openings. The holders have conquered them in regulation time just once in their most recent nine attempts.

Finally, while Argentina have no Messi, the hosts are understrength to a greater extent owing to both the aforementioned retirements and injuries to new captain Bastian Schweinsteiger, Mats Hummels and Sami Khedira.

If those three arguments aren't enough to alert you to the lay appeal, there is even a case hinged on motivation. It is imperative that Argentina avoid defeat to set the tone for Martino's tenure and avenge events at in the Maracana, whereas for Germany this is a mere tune-up for their upcoming Euro 2016 qualifier against Scotland.

Recommended Bet: Lay Germany to win @ 1.9310/11