Football Bet of the Day: Oppose the Insurers to secure a payout

Shakira will doubtless be glued to tonight's game

It's two winners out of three this week for Kevin Hatchard, and he's off to South America for his latest selection.

Alianza Petrolera v La Equidad
Thursday September 4th, 21:15

There were quite a few people at a half-full Wembley last night who seemed a bit subdued and glum during England's laboured 1-0 win over Norway. Not me though. Firstly, my ticket was free (showbiz connections, and all that), and secondly, I received word during the match that Viktoria Koln had done the business for us against Sportfreunde Siegen. We asked for four goals or more at 2.47/5, and Viktoria's 5-0 win fitted the bill.

As a devoted follower of the cult of Shakira, I often think of Colombia in happy times, and that's where we are off to today. It's the glitz and glamour of the top flight, the Liga Postobon, and a clash between Alianza Petrolera and La Equidad.

To say that La Equidad have had a nightmare start to the campaign is a bit of an understatement. The Insurers can expect the premiums to go up on their goal concession policy, as they have shipped 16 goals in six games, losing them all. The sorry picture is completed by an attack that has netted just four times in the league. Needless to say, Nestor Otero's side are rock bottom of the standings.

Alianza Petrolera have only won one of their first six games, but they've only lost one too. Their biggest problem is goalscoring (just two goals scored), but they are sound in defence (just two goals conceded). The Oil Dealers have drawn three of their last four league games 0-0, so you might be tempted by the draw at 3.39/4, Under 2.5 Goals at 1.684/6 or No in the Both Teams To Score market at 1.8910/11.

I'd strongly consider the latter bet, but I'm leaning even more towards the home win at 2.226/5. If we expect Alianza's consistently strong defence to keep the bottom side's limited attack at bay, we then have to ask ourselves whether they can breach the visitors' rearguard. Recent results would suggest they can - in their last three league games La Equidad have lost 4-0, 5-1 and 3-2, and they are yet to keep a clean sheet in the league. If you want a trading position, backing 0-0 in the Correct Score market at 9.08/1 wouldn't be a terrible plan considering Alianza's recent results.

Recommended Bet

Back Alianza Petrolera to win at 2.226/5

2014 P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 17

Points Returned: 15.82

P/L: -1.18 points