Better value betting the UCL handicap with Pinnacle Sports

Better value betting the UCL handicap with Pinnacle Sports

By Michael Gales Sep 12, 2014

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This article highlights the excellent value Pinnacle Sports offer on the Champions League handicap market. Find out why betting against the likes of Bayern Munich, Juventus & Barcelona on the Champions League handicap last year would have been profitable.

Profit made betting against Bayern Munich with Pinnacle Sports

After their record breaking 2012-13 season – which included the Bundesliga, German Cup, German Super Cup and the Champions League titles – and the addition of coach Pep Guardiola, Bayern Munich were expected to be at the forefront of a new German dominance in Europe last season.

The Bavarians made it as far as the semi-finals – before humiliation against eventual winners Real Madrid – and were unsurprisingly short-priced 1X2 favourites for those games, but on the Handicap they only covered in five of their 12 games en-route. Pinnacle Sports’ Champions League handicap table below, highlights handicap performance, as separate to straight-up results, exposing some crucial trends for bettors.

What did this mean for handicap bettors? The data suggests that discouraged by the short prices offered on the 1X2 market when backing Bayern, public money backed them on the handicap, moving that price away from true value. Bettors should be careful of drawing conclusion from such a narrow sample, but this potentially offers an opportunity for bettors who are prepared to swim against the tide to make a profit betting against the big teams who are overvalued.

Pinnacle Sports offer the best handicap odds, lowest margins and highest limits for Champions League betting. As an example the image below highlights the vast differential in potential payouts, something bettors can sometimes overlook. Don’t settle for anything less this Champions League campaign; give yourself the best chance to win more by using Pinnacle Sports.

By placing a 50 bet at Pinnacle Sports on each game for Bayern Munich not to cover the spread, it would have resulted in a 65.50 profit – which would have earned you 25% more than other bookmakers.

Find value on the Champions League handicap markets

The Champions League handicap table below shows how well last seasons 32 teams performed against expectations in Europe’s elite domestic competition.

Instead of looking at the win-loss-draw performance of each team, the table highlights the teams that have exceeded or fallen short of handicap expectations – a vital tool for Champions League soccer betting.  If you are new to handicap betting read this article, which explains everything you need to know to ensure you are ready to make a profit on 2014/15 Champions League spreads.

2013/14 Champions League Handicap performance

Team

Games

Overall cover %

Home cover %

Away cover %

Atletico Madrid

13

92.3%

83.3%

100.0%

Real Madrid

13

84.6%

83.3%

100.0%

Olympiakos

8

75.0%

75.0%

75.0%

Arsenal

8

75.0%

75.0%

75.0%

Man Utd

10

70.0%

100.0%

40.0%

Ajax

6

50.0%

66.7%

33.3%

Austria Wien

6

50.0%

33.3%

66.7%

Bayer Leverkusen

8

50.0%

25.0%

75.0%

Benfica

6

50.0%

66.7%

33.3%

Borussia Dortmund

10

50.0%

60.0%

40.0%

Chelsea

12

50.0%

50.0%

50.0%

FC Copenhagen

6

50.0%

66.7%

33.3%

Galatasaray

8

50.0%

75.0%

25.0%

Man City

8

50.0%

25.0%

75.0%

Napoli

6

50.0%

66.7%

33.3%

Paris St. Germain

10

50.0%

40.0%

60.0%

Steaua Bucuresti

6

50.0%

33.3%

66.7%

Bayern Munich

12

41.7%

50.0%

33.3%

AC Milan

8

37.5%

50.0%

25.0%

Schalke

8

37.5%

50.0%

25.0%

Basel

6

33.3%

33.3%

33.3%

Celtic

6

33.3%

66.7%

0.0%

Marseille

6

33.3%

33.3%

33.3%

Shakhtar Donetsk

6

33.3%

33.3%

33.3%

Viktoria Plzen

6

33.3%

66.7%

0.0%

Barcelona

10

30.0%

40.0%

20.0%

Zenit St. Petersburg

8

25.0%

0.0%

50.0%

Anderlecht

6

16.7%

0.0%

33.3%

CSKA Moscow

6

16.7%

33.3%

0.0%

Juventus

6

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Porto

6

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Real Sociedad

6

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Value backing against the fashionable teams

Like we mentioned earlier backing against popular teams can prove profitable on the Champions league handicap market.

A look at the table above shows that Juventus and Barcelona both struggled against the handicap last term in the UCL.

Despite winning three consecutive Serie A titles Juventus were one of three teams who failed to cover the spread in any of their games, while Barcelona paid out in only 30% of games for bettors who backed them to cover the handicap, despite reaching the Quarter-finals.

This highlights the fact that both have been overvalued by the market and therefore offered value betting against them on the spread.

Atletico a handicapper’s dream

In comparison Atletico Madrid were the surprise package in both La Liga and the Champions League last term, and were undervalued dramatically on the handicap.

The La Liga winners covered in a remarkable 92.3% of their 13 games, including 100% of their away games and 83.3% of home matches.

Given the market undervalued Atletico so much, bettors who accurately judged their relative strength would have been in a great position to make a significant Champions League betting profit. Of course, after achieving so much last term, will public perception of Atletico swing the other way possibly overvaluing them?

Foreign fortresses

Champions League bettors should be aware of foreign fortresses when betting on the handicap market. Last term Galatasaray – whose stadium is renowned for their intimidating atmosphere – covered in 75% of home games, compared to just 25% on their travels.

Similarly Celtic and Viktoria Plzen covered in 66.7% of their home games, but failed to cover once on the road. This showcases bettors should handicap certain teams differently when playing at home instead of away.

This article shows that value can be found when betting against the spread in the Champions League. Bettors should take into consideration the handicap form presented in this article and use it alongside their own research to make accurate and educated predictions when betting on the Champions League.

Click here to see the latest Champions League handicap odds.

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