The Big Match Tactical View: France v Germany

Can France extent their impressive run of form?

It hasn't been a great tournament for European sides so far - but two old rivals meet in the first quarter-final of this World Cup. Michael Cox considers the unusual tactical battle, while professional trader Alan Thompson gives you the lowdown on his betting plan... 

France v Germany
Friday 17:00,
Live on BBC1.

Match Odds: France 3.39/4, Germany 2.56/4, The Draw 3.39/4.

When considering the tactical battle between two top-class international sides, it's not often that you think of the goalkeepers first and foremost.

Goalkeepers are usually separate from the tactical battle. Regardless of their ability, it's unlikely their role will actively impact upon the rest of the contest - they stay in their box, wait until the opposition shoots, and attempt to make a save. It's as simple as that.

These two goalkeepers, however, reject one part of that instruction - staying in their box. Hugo Lloris and Manuel Neuer are amongst the most proactive goalkeepers in world football, and they'll be taking high starting positions outside their penalty area, ready to sweep up behind their back four. It will be the game's most obvious tactical feature, and if either makes a single wrong decision, it could define the game.

Elsewhere, this should be a fairly simple tactical battle - 4-3-3 against 4-3-3. The most interesting outfield battle will be in midfield, where both sides depend on a holding midfielder not entirely accustomed to that position. Philipp Lahm is a full-back by trade, while Yohan Cabaye generally plays much higher up the pitch, and this could be their first real test against clever opponents trying to find pockets of space between the lines.

Because both sides are playing 4-3-3, neither of these players will be up against a traditional number ten. But, in a way, this makes their job even more difficult - they won't have one single opponent to track, they'll have clever playmakers drifting inside from either flank.

Lahm will be tasked with watching the runs of both Mathieu Valbuena, who will start from the right, and Antoine Griezmann, who will surely return in place of Olivier Giroud, and play on the left with Karim Benzema upfront. With Paul Pogba and Blaise Matuidi shuttling forward from midfield, expect some clever one-twos as France attempt to attack through the centre of the pitch. Is Lahm good enough at ball-winning in that central zone?

Cabaye, meanwhile, could be handed a similar task against Mesut Ozil and Mario Gotze, who both drift inside from wide positions. There's a chance, however, that Andre Schurrle could be handed a start after his positive impact against Algeria from the bench - he offers more running in behind the defence, which could be useful against a high France defensive line.

Pace could be vital to breaking the deadlock here, with both sides pushing up - which is exactly why Lloris and Neuer will probably play a key role.

With the wide players drifting inside, genuine width must come from the full-backs, and this favours France. Patrice Evra has had a decent tournament while Mathieu Debuchy can also attack well, whereas Germany lack genuine full-backs.

Jerome Boateng has done well at right-back, and Jogi Low will be desperate for him to return to that position after an unconvincing outing in the centre of defence against Algeria - that depends upon Mats Hummel's return from flu. Left-back Benedikt Howedes is very limited in that position, though, and Valbuena should be able to drift inside without worrying about Howedes' attacking.

Valbuena is the key player here. He's enjoyed an excellent tournament so far, and his drifts inside from the right into central positions means he'll be up against the two German players who have looked most uncomfortable - Howedes and Lahm. Howedes can't attack and doesn't like sprinting back to recover his position. Lahm has twice conceded possession in dangerous positions for a clear opposition chance, against Portugal and Ghana.

I think Valbuena could have a big say on the outcome of this match, and I'll back him to open the scoring at 16.015/1 - he might find space to shoot from range.

This seems a very evenly-balanced contest to me - France have looked no less impressive than Germany so far, and while this French side doesn't boast the tournament pedigree of their Germany counterparts, Didier Deschamps will field his best XI. I'm not sure Jogi Low has yet found his. I'll lay Germany to win the game in 90 minutes at 2.56/4.

Recommended Bets

Back Mathieu Valbuena to score first at 16.015/1
Lay Germany at 2.56/4

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

This meeting has all the makings of another classic in this incredible World Cup. Three-time winners Germany, who have reached the semi-final stage at the last two World Cups (losing on both occasions to the winners) take on France, who since winning it in 1998, have made the final once, in 2006, ultimately losing to Italy on penalties.

I wasn’t impressed with the Germans last time out against Algeria; they looked slow and I thought struggled against a side I thought they would have eased past, while the additional 30 minutes won’t have done their legs any favours either.

I don’t think there is much between these sides, so the Match Odds market made my mind up with Germany available at 2.52 and France at 3.25 - I will be backing Les Bleus. 

In their four games so far, these teams have scored 19 goals between them (Germany 9, France 10) while they have both kept three clean sheets (after 90 minutes). Will it be attack or defence that will come out on top?  

The market is favouring defence, with Under 2.5 Goals currently trading at 1.75. This sounds a bit short for me with two sides who can get goals so I will be looking to back Over 2.5 Goals @ anything around 2.4.

Late goals and drama have been a big feature of this tournament. In the round of 16, six of the eight games were 0-0 at half time, with 15 of the 18 goals in this round scored in the second half or extra time (seven in ET).

In normal time, five of the 11 scored came after the 78th minute (France v Nigeria, 79, 90; Netherlands v Mexico, 88, 90; Costa Rica v Greece,90). If there is only a one goal margin in this game going into the last 15 minutes, I will be 'drip laying' the current score (placing a number of lay bets as the price shortens).