Netherlands v Argentina: South America beats Europe, just

Maradona Moment: On Wednesday night we find out if Lionel Messi can drag Argentina to their first World Cup final since 1990

Argentina have been effective rather than electric, but Tobias Gourlay believes they can overpower a Dutch side that looks to be running out of gas...

Netherlands v Argentina
Wednesday July 9, 21:00
Live on ITV1

Match Odds

For the first time since the Maradona era ended 20 years ago in a drugs-testing facility beneath Foxboro Stadium, Argentina are in a World Cup semi-final.

Lionel Messi, of course, is the man who's dragged them here. Scorer of four goals, he's also the creator of more goalscoring chances (19) than anyone else at Brazil 2014.

Thank goodness he's fit, healthy and keen to play on Wednesday night, because there hasn't been a lot else for Argentina to crow about. The Albiceleste's next best thing, Angel Di Maria, is crocked, which could mean Sergio Aguero returns to the starting lineup. If it brings Enzo Perez - a third defensive midfielder - into the first XI, stick with Holby City.

It's only four years since the Netherlands beat Uruguay 3-2 at this stage of the South Africa World Cup. This time around, the stars - Robben, Sneijder, Van Persie - are burning just as brightly and Louis van Gaal has cobbled together a defence that has conceded just once in the Oranje's last three outings.

To this point in Brazil 2014 (a day or so before the hosts play the first semi-final), the favourites have come through 12/12 knockout ties. In the last 16 and quarter finals, Argentina neutered European sides that had previously shown themselves to be (occasionally) capable attacking units.

The Netherlands have those brighter stars, but the team overall fits the same profile: devastating against Spain and a daring-but-mediocre Australia; efficient against a Chile team that was chasing a win and a Mexico side doing the opposite; ineffective against Costa Rica. The trend is for diminishing returns.

If you fancy Argentina to win in 90 minutes, have a look at the low-goals trends below. The draw is a threat and bear in mind too that each of Argentina's four normal-time wins have been by just the odd goal. Since 2002, a single goal has been enough to win 4/6 World Cup semi finals without recourse to extra time. The Argentina 1-0 Correct Score is 7.613/2.

Over / Under 2.5 Goals

There are two strong trends in favour of flicking over and watching Holby City: since semi-finals were introduced for the 1982 World Cup, 13/16 have stayed Under 2.5 Goals; this time around, Brazil has seen samba turn to slumber as 10/12 knockout matches have reached 90 minutes with two goals or fewer.

Under 2.5 Goals is a 1.594/7 favourite. If you bet against it, you are effectively punting on moments of individual magic from Robben, Van Persie and Messi. They could happen, but remember that the two coaches are well aware of the major threats to their sides and that, between them, the teams have managed to score just three normal-time goals in four knockout ties so far, while conceding only a single goal.

Since Japorea '02, 5/6 semi-finals have reached full time with Under 1.5 Goals.

Half Time

The Dutch have been all-square at the break in 5/5 so far.

Argentina have found ways to be ahead at half-time in 3/5, but the low-goals trends around this match - and the likelihood of Van Gaal setting up a bit more defensively than usual - suggest it will take a while for them to break down the Oranje.

Since 1998, 7/8 semi-finals have been level pegging after 45 minutes. Six of the eight have been goalless.

Half With Most Goals

Given the preponderance of goalless first halves, it's no surprise that the second half has brought more goals in 6/8 semi finals.

Remember too that 10 of the Netherlands' 12 goals at this tournament have come after the break.

Best Cash Out Opportunity

Here's the plan: back the draw to start, then watch the price come tumbling down as yet another semi-final drifts towards a half-time draw.

Cash out during the interval because, despite the overall lack of goals, only 5/16 semi-finals have stayed all-square until 90 minutes, whereas 8/16 have been won by a single goal...

Winning Margin

If the Correct Score's too much of a leap, think about Argentina By 1. We might have mentioned these numbers before, but 8/16 semi-finals have been won in 90 minutes by the smallest possible margin and Argentina have done the same 4/5 times in this tournament.

Best Bet
Back Half Time Draw @ 2.021/1

Recommended Bets
Back Second Half in Half With Most Goals @ 2.47/5
Back Argentina by 1 Winning Margin @ 5.04/1

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 17pts
Returned: 24.59pts
P/L: +7.59pts