Brazil vs. Germany & Argentina vs. Netherlands

Brazil vs. Germany & Argentina vs. Netherlands

By Gary Wise Jul 8, 2014

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In the first Semi-final Brazil play Germany and in the other Argentina take on the Netherlands. Read this World Cup Semi-final betting preview for an insight into how you could find an edge in determining which two teams will make the World Cup Final.

World Cup Semi-Final Betting: Brazil vs. Germany

 

Germany are now the favourites in many eyes, but are not without flaws. After demolishing Portugal, they only managed a draw with Ghana that exposed some questionable German defense en route to winning Group G. After a tough win vs Algeria in R16, an early goal vs France in the quarterfinals was enough.

Two world soccer powers now find themselves 180 minutes from kissing the World Cup.

How will missing two key players affect Brazil?

Neymar’s injury is still the talk of the tournament. Prior to it, he’d been called everything from talisman to genius, but that all disappeared for Brazil when Juan Camilo Zuniga took the 22-year old phenom out of the World Cup. Our spread markets for Brazil-Germany opened with Brazil at -0.25 2.10, while Neymar’s status for the semi-final was still in question. Even with early bettors accounting for the possibility of his exclusion from the semi-finals, once the news that Neymar was out broke, the market showed its dismay for Brazil, who can now be bet upon at 0 1.96.

Neymar’s likely replacement is Chelsea’s Willian, a direct winger who will pose a different threat to Germany’s backline. This is likely contributing to our Totals markets moving towards Under 2 goals, which opened at 2.15 and is now at 2.00. Germany’s greatest perceived weakness is a defense that plays four centrebacks; not having to cope with Neymar should make that defense’s task easier.

While Neymar has had the headlines, the news Monday that Thiago Silva will officially miss his nation’s Semi-final match has similarly huge implications. The Brazilian captain, known in his home country as the rock, received a second yellow card against Colombia, with a subsequent appeal against the yellow denied, disqualifying him from playing against the Germans. Silva’s likely replacement is Dante, who most feel can’t replace Brazil’s best defender, nor the leadership the Brazilian captain brings, a potential windfall for Golden Boot backers of Thomas Muller.

Beyond Silva, the real question bettors must solve is just how pronounced Brazil’s home-field advantage is. This article determined the value of HFA in English Premier League, but there are some who feel Brazil’s advantage has been even more pronounced, with strong complaints from disposed opponents regarding referees not booking the Selecao for offences a visiting nation might not get away with. As a bettor, you must determine the precise value of that advantage. Do so, and you may have your edge.

Both nations have covered the spread in 3 of 5 matches thus far in the tournament. Pinnacle Sports’ 1X2 markets have Brazil at 2.78 (a 36% probability of winning), the Germans 35.3% (35.5%) and the regulation time draw at 3.25. Enjoy the semi-final.

World Cup Semi-Final Betting: Argentina vs Netherlands 

 

Before this World Cup, the Dutch fans were saying this was their weakest World Cup squad in years, right up until demolishing Spain in their opening game. Then, brimming with confidence, they almost lost against Australia en route to winning the Group of Death from which so many had previously predicted elimination.

After narrowly defeating Mexico in the round of 16, the attack focused Oranje went to extra time against Costa Rica, before winning on penalties, thanks to the Tim Krul gamble by manager Louis Van Gaal – Van Gaal brought on goalkeeper Krul with 30 seconds to go just for penalties.

While Argentina’s ascent was more predictable, bettors couldn’t be faulted for not seeing this path. A nation that was supposed to have a problematic defense and an easy time within their group looked shaky in their opener against Bosnia & Herzegovina and then Iran. In the knockout stages they beat Switzerland and Belgium. While this was all going on, the pre-tournament assessments of Lionel Messi as a one-man team looked dead on, at least from an offensive standpoint.

A critical question bettors must answer revolves around how these nations will deal with opposition superstars. At present, 4 players (Messi, Robin van Persie, Gonzalo Higuain and Arjen Robben) are priced at 3.62 or better to score, in part because of the questions remaining about each nation’s defense.

Netherlands have only managed two clean sheets, one of which saw them fail to score themselves; Argentina’s clean sheets have come against an Iranian team with one goal in the entire tournament, Switzerland and a Belgian nation that failed to score before the 70th minute of any of their previous five matches.

Van Gaal’s defense looked good against Costa Rica, but that team relied heavily on counter attack opportunities Van Gaal didn’t give them. Can Netherlands contain Messi in the same way? Can Argentina contain Robben and van Persie? At present, our line on Over 2 goals is at 1.95 and Under at 1.97. Bettors clearly feel that the importance of the match and the formatting of the knockout stage will keep the score low, and therefore the superstars at bay.

The Argentines are favoured by our 1X2 markets, their price at 2.42  (41.3% winners equity), but have just one win and one push vs. closing spreads in 5 matches. Netherlands, 3-2 vs. the spread in this World Cup, are at 3.35 (29.9%), while the draw prices similarly at 3.24.

Click here for the latest World Cup Semi-Finals odds.

*Odds subject to change

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