Brazil v Netherlands: Hosts can finish on a high in third place shootout

Thiago Silva is available in Brasilia to calm David Luiz down

After the record-breaking low of Belo Horizonte, Tobias Gourlay thinks Brazil can recover a sliver of national pride against a Dutch team that just wants to go home

Brazil v Netherlands
Saturday July 12, 21:00
Live on ITV1

Match Odds
Welcome to the World Cup's least important, but most entertaining match. As Louis van Gaal said on Thursday, 'There is only one award that counts and that is becoming world champion.' Whoever wins here, they still go home as losers.

If you're betting on the outcome, this is normally a game for which you wait to see the team sheets. This column can't wait until then, but never mind. Just this once, it's prepared to punt ante-post.

That's because the circumstances around this particular third-place playoff are a little unusual: records show that never before has a host nation had to play for bronze in the aftermath of a 7-1 walloping.

You don't need to worry too much about the draw: no one wants to play an extra half an hour at this stage and only one of the previous 16 third-place playoffs has finished all-square at 90 minutes.

So those chastened Brazilians are the pick. Thiago Silva returns to sort David Luiz out and Phil Scolari is determined to take the edge off the 'worst day of my life' with a cheap win over Van Gaal - who has also called Saturday's meeting in Brasilia 'pointless' and 'unfair' - before settling down to cheer on his conquerors, who are all that stands between Argentina and a World Cup win on Brazilian soil.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The goals markets are where big bets should be made. Go all the way back to 1978 and you'll find that 9/9 World Cup third-place playoffs have produced three goals or more.

Take the 1.635/8 for Over 2.5 Goals, by all means, but be prepared to go further...

Over/Under 3.5 Goals
The popular impression of third-place playoffs as high-scoring jamborees is an accurate one: six of the last eight have even gone Over 3.5 Goals.

Ok, 2.546/4 is not quite the price we got on the equivalent game four years ago, when Germany came from behind to beat Uruguay 3-2, but this time we've got one team that's going to bust a gut for goals and another that has the counter-attacking talent (if it plays) to take advantage of that.

Both Teams to Score?
If four goals or more seems implausible, it might be easier to say 'Yes' to Both Teams to Score? It's a bet that would have paid out in 8/9 third-place playoffs since 1978, though 1.538/15 is not a life-changing price.

Combine your bets on Brazil to win and both teams to score, however, and you can get 4.03/1 in the Match Odds and Both Teams to Score market.

To Score
The prospect of a few goals usually leads us towards the goalscorer markets. The issue with this match is the possibility of the coaches making sweeping changes.

So you'll want to check the team sheets before diving in. If Oscar starts, he's probably the pick to score anytime at around 4.57/2. The Chelsea man could play more centrally than he does for his club and his goal records are very reasonable. He scored eight in 33 Premier League appearances last season and since then a couple of goals at this tournament have brought him up to 11 in 35 for his country.

Best Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.546/4

Recommended Bets
Back Brazil @ 2.226/5

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 20pts
Returned: 26.61pts
P/L: +6.61pts