Argentina v Belgium: Close encounter expected in Brasilia

Argentina have stumbled through to the last eight

Brasilia is the setting for Argentina v Belgium in the World Cup Quarter-Finals and Paul Robinson thinks that the South American nation will have the edge...

Argentina v Belgium
Saturday July 05, 17:00 BST
Live on ITV 1

Argentina won all three of their group games and negotiated their way past Switzerland in the last 16 but they've looked far from good in doing so. All four of their victories have been by a single goal margin and they needed extra time in their win over the Swiss.

It's only really been Lionel Messi that has shone for the champions of 1986 and even he has done it in fits and starts. Gonzalo Higuain, Sergio Aguero, Angel Di Maria and Ezequiel Lavezzi have been carried by the Barcelona man, but at least Di Maria managed to find the net last time.

Despite looking shaky at the back, Alejandro Sabella's side have kept two clean sheets so far and they managed to keep Switzerland at arms-length. Javier Mascherano is doing a decent job of shielding the back four and he will have a key role in tracking the runners from the Belgian midfield.

Opponents, Belgium, also required extra time to make it into the last eight of the competition as they were tied 0-0 with USA after 90 minutes. A Kevin De Bruyne goal broke the deadlock and when Romelu Lukaku came off the bench to add a second, the game appeared to be as good as over. The States pulled one back though and were unlucky not to force penalties as they laid siege to Thibaut Courtois' goal.

Again, like Argentina, Marc Wilmots' men had a 100% record in the group as they won all three of their games. They were also all by a one goal margin and they looked relatively unimpressive for the most part given the standard of the opposition.

The defence have looked good, Vincent Kompany and Daniel Van Buyten in particular, but going forward they have failed to deliver. Lukaku has lost his place in the starting XI and Eden Hazard has been relatively anonymous.

Match Odds
Argentina 2.26/5 Belgium 3.953/1 The Draw 3.412/5

The market is expecting a tight affair and I wouldn't disagree. The pair have had an almost identical passage to this stage and it's difficult to imagine either suddenly springing into life.

That being said, Argentina have the more experienced players and that could prove vital here. Belgium are still a work in progress and while they have the magic of Eden Hazard, the Argentines have more world class players.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 2.3811/8 Under 2.5 Goals 1.728/11

After a glut of goals in the group phase, they completely dried up in the round of 16. Only Holland v Mexico went over 2.5 and that needed two late goals to do so. 

The pressure of the situation appears to be getting to the players and I can't see that changing now as the tournament reaches its climax. Under 2.5 has to be the call here and I wouldn't be surprised if it actually went under 1.5.

Half Time/Full Time

The bet that interests me the most for this game is in the Half Time/Full Time market. You can get around 5.85/1 on it to be level at the break and Argentina to be winning after 90 minutes. That screams value to me as I expect quite a lengthy feeling out process early on, before the South Americans begin to turn the screw in the final half an hour.

Cash Out  

Our cash out opportunity lies in the Correct Score market as Argentina to win 1-0 will surely trade shorter in running than the current odds of 7.613/2. If this game goes how I think it will, the Argentines will go ahead at some point in the second half and that will send the price of 1-0 crashing down. Even if it's 0-0 until late in the match, the 1-0 scoreline should still contract slightly.

Recommended Bets
Back Argentina @ 2.26/5 (2pts)
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.728/11 (1pt)
Back Draw/Argentina in the HT/FT Market @ 5.85/1 (2pts)

Best Cash Out
Back Argentina to win 1-0 @ 7.613/2

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 28 pts
Returned: 38.09 pts
P/L: +10.09 pts