Men's French Open Betting: Raonic to start fast but Djokovic to prevail

Can Milos Raonic serve up a tie break in set one today?

The quarter finals of the French Open begin on Tuesday and Sean Calvert has found two value bets to consider in the clash between Novak Djokovic and Milos Raonic...

We've reached the quarter finals of the French Open and sadly my winning run of correct bets on Andy Murray matches is over after the Brit surprisingly beat Fernando Verdasco in straight sets on Monday.

It was a decent performance from Murray, whose tie break win in set three foiled my four sets wager, but he looks good going into the last eight to face Gael Monfils tomorrow.

Ahead of that, my pre-tournament selection, Novak Djokovic, is still going along nicely too and the Serbian takes on Milos Raonic on Tuesday in a match that could offer up a few decent betting opportunities.

The first one that stands out is the big-looking 12.011/1 about Raonic taking the first set on a tie break and that has to be risked on a Cash Out basis.

The same bet profited in the Ernests Gulbis vs Roger Federer match and traded at 1.071/14 before Ernie messed it up from a winning position, but with the Canadian likely to be not too much over 2.01/1 if it gets to 6-6 it's well worth considering.

Both times that these two have met the opener has gone to a tie break and both meetings were on clay - the last one only weeks ago in Rome when Milos played Novak tough in the semi finals there.

Indeed, Djokovic often struggles early against big servers like Milos and John Isner and in nine matches against the pair the first set has gone to a tie break an amazing seven times, with the other two going to 7-5.

So, based on that the 'tie break played' market also looks good, as does the over 36.5 total games and the Djokovic 3-1.

Milos has shown improvement in his volleying of late and if he can get into the net on a reasonably regular basis he certainly has a shot of pushing the Serb past the overs and into a fourth or maybe even fifth set.

The Canadian has adopted a different approach on the clay this campaign and it's a pretty simple one of staying closer to the baseline and not allowing himself to be pushed back and back in the rallies.

Interesting then that his coach is Riccardo Piatti, who was unable to get Richard Gasquet to implement the same tactics when they were crying out to be used by the Frenchman.

Anyway, Djokovic for his part crushed a seriously lacklustre Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in his last match here, but it really was a weak effort from the Frenchman in front of a silent Chatrier court and Raonic will surely present a sterner challenge.

The bad news for Canadian tennis fans though is that this match will be played on Chatrier, which seems for once this year to be the slower of the show courts, with several players - including Djokovic, and Verdasco last night - complaining at how much faster Lenglen is.

It's forecast to be another rainy day in Paris today and I can't imagine that will favour Milos in the slightest, with the drizzle slowing the courts again, and I'm leaning towards the Serb taking this one 3-1 at 3.613/5.

The overs looks decent, but I can't see Raonic taking more than one set here at the most and therefore the 3-1 at a much bigger price is the call.

Recommended Bet
Back Djokovic to beat Raonic 3-1 at 3.613/5

Best Cash Out Opportunity
Back Raonic to win set one 7-6 at 12.011/1