World Cup 2014: Back Rodriguez to stay top of the scoring charts

James Rodriguez is fit and firing as the Golden Boot race hots up

Brazil 2014 has been a feast of great football and great goals. Ralph Ellis has been looking at the spectacular chase for the Golden Boot...

As careers go, the kindest word to describe Oleg Salenko's would be "decent". The Russian striker drifted around seven different European clubs after first making his name with Zenit Leningrad, and finished up retiring at the age of 32 after three years in which injuries kept him to just four games.

In Britain you might say he's remembered for a brief spell at Glasgow Rangers - but actually he probably isn't remembered, as he played just 16 games after a 2.5million move before being shipped out to Turkey because of concerns over his fitness. He's 44 now, working as a coach for the Ukraine FA, and should have disappeared into obscurity.

But there is one thing that makes Salenko special. He is the answer to a great quiz question:  Who is the only winner of the World Cup's golden boot whose country failed to qualify from the group stages?

Salenko smashed five past Cameroon for Russia at USA 1990, and tucked away a penalty in a 3-1 defeat by Sweden, which was enough to see him finish the tournament tied level with Bulgaria's Hristo Stoichkov on six apiece.

So it can be done to win a World Cup Golden Boot as part of a team that goes out early. But in reality it doesn't happen very often. And that's why in this year's shoot-out for one of the biggest individual prizes that the game has to offer you need also to look for a team that can go the distance.

It's why Lionel Messi is currently the 3.613/5 favourite, even though he lags a goal behind leader James Rodriguez who has five. The Barcelona wizard still has his second round match to come, and you'd fancy him to score against Switzerland tomorrow. After that his side have every prospect of beating either Belgium or the USA and reaching the semis, which really is key for whoever gets the Golden Boot.

In the four tournaments since Salenko's freak achievement, the top scorer has always played for a country who reached the last four. It's logical really - the more games you play, the more chances you get to score. And this year in particular it will be true. Rodriguez already has enough to have won the trophy in either of the last two World Cups - but this time it might well be that it won't be won without at least matching the eight scored by Ronaldo in 2002. Eight or above is currently a lay of 4.84/1 in the Golden Boot Award Goals market.

Brazil's dazzling number ten Neymar was matched early in the tournament at just 3.02/1 but has now drifted to 8.88/1. Nursing a thigh injury after being kicked from pillar to post by Chile, and in particular Cardiff's Gary Medel, he may not even play in Friday's quarter-final against the Colombians.

Neymar has carried Brazil so far, but without him they would not be worth backing at their odds-on price of 1.865/6 for Friday's quarter-final. And with Rodriguez not only fit but firing, there's every prospect of the home country's party coming to an early end. That's why I go for the Colombian star, currently priced at 5.04/1, as the best value bet for the Golden Boot.