среда, 25 июня 2014 г.

Wimbledon 2014: Fired-up Stakhovsky can go well on the grass against Gulbis

Sean is hoping for more Wimbledon inspiration from Stakhovsky today Sean is hoping for more Wimbledon inspiration from Stakhovsky today

Tennis expert Sean Calvert landed another good-priced winner yesterday and he likes two underdogs and an easy win for Andy Murray at Wimbledon on Wednesday...

Tuesday was another very profitable betting day of the grass court season, as two of my three wagers were successful.

Martin Klizan taking the first set of his match against Rafael Nadal provided a nice 4.57/2 winner, while Nicolas Mahut and Marcel Granollers just about scraped into a fourth set and over the total games mark in their match.

There was misfortune in my other pick when Gilles Muller won two of the three sets played against Julien Benneteau on tie breaks, while winning the first set 6-4 when that set was meant to be 7-6. Indeed, there were 10 first set tie breaks on Tuesday, but none in the matches I was expecting them in, which was a little galling, but it was still a decent day nonetheless.

Andy Murray is back in action today at around 1pm and he looks to have a very easy day in store against Blaz Rola, who has been beaten twice in recent weeks by James Ward. I think that's all we need to say about Rola and the fact that even the Wimbledon schedulers have opted to shunt Murray over to Court 1 suggests that this will be a comfortable day for the Brit.

The 9.5 game handicap on Rola may not be enough for the Slovenian, who has played just five matches on grass in his career and was getting soundly beaten by Carlos Berlocq before retiring in Eastbourne last week.

Before all of that though I like the idea of taking on Ernests Gulbis in his 11.30am clash with Sergiy Stakhovsky, who loves diving about on the grass and should prove a worthy opponent for the Latvian.

Ernie has never really taken to grass and never been past the third round here at Wimbledon to go with a pretty poor 39 percent winning mark on the green stuff.

His opening round here against the perennially injured Jurgen Zopp was a big struggle and I don't think that the eccentric Latvian is too bothered how long he stays in the environs of SW19.

Stako on the other hand will be keen to repeat the glory of last year's famous win over Roger Federer and has every chance of doing just that at a tasty 3.65n/a, which is a price that should at least make a good Cash Out opportunity.

The Ukrainian started well in round one with a good win over Berlocq in straight sets and the head-to-head, which favours Ernie can be overlooked on this surface, such is the disparity between Gulbis's level on grass compared to other surfaces.

Elsewhere, I'm tempted by Alex Dolgopolov against Benjamin Becker, but I can't trust Dolgo at a price like 1.68/13 and I prefer taking a bit of a chance on Sam Querrey to at least trouble Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

The big Frenchman, as I've been saying all year, is really on the downgrade and only some dodgy salmon eaten by Jurgen Melzer ahead of their first round clash has seen Jo into round two.

This contest between two very good servers and poor returners is likely to go long and the over 39.5 total games looks good here, as does the +4.5 games on Querrey.

The pair have met twice, with one win each and I've seen nothing from Tsonga of late that suggests he should be a 1.351/3 shot today.

Of course, the major issue with the American is his brain, which is likely to short circuit at any moment, so a Cash Out bet at 3.711/4 should allow opportunity to avoid him fluffing his lines at around 1.011/100.

Recommended Bet
Back Murray -9.5 games to beat Rola at 1.84/5

Best Cash Out Opportunities
Back Stakhovsky to beat Gulbis at 3.65n/a
Back Querrey to beat Tsonga at 3.711/4

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