Portugal v Ghana: Back Black Stars to give themselves a chance

It's been a frustrating tournament for Cristiano Ronaldo

Portugal and Ghana need to win their final Group G game and hope for help elsewhere. Kevin Hatchard thinks the resurgent Africans are the most likely qualifiers of the two.

Portugal v Ghana
Thursday June 26, 17:00
Live on BBC3

Match Odds: Portugal 2.265/4, Ghana 3.211/5, the draw 4.03/1

Portugal

Portugal's dismal campaign was given a stay of execution, as Silvestre Varela's 95th-minute equaliser snatched a 2-2 draw against USA, keeping hopes of reaching the last 16 hanging by a gossamer thread. Despite taking an early lead through Nani, Portugal failed to extend their advantage, and dozy defending was to blame for both goals they conceded. Jermaine Jones produced a stunning strike but should've been closed down, and centre-back Bruno Alves did a great impression of a beached whale as he played Clint Dempsey onside for what was nearly the winning goal.

Paulo Bento's men need a big win against Ghana (their goal difference is -4) and have to hope for a heavy defeat for either Germany (+4) or USA (+1), but realistically, everyone knows the game is up. Despite constant press briefings to the contrary, star man Cristiano Ronaldo clearly isn't fit, and his sumptuous cross for Varela's goal is his only contribution so far. Injuries to central strikers Hugo Almeida and Helder Postiga haven't helped Portugal's cause, as young Eder has failed to make an impact.

Bento is unlikely to make wholesale changes to his line-up, despite the almost hopeless situation he finds himself in. Pepe returns from suspension after his crazy head-butt on Thomas Muller, but left-back Fabio Coentrao is still unavailable because of an injury picked up against Germany. Midfielder William Carvalho, who is regarded as one of the hottest prospects in European football, is in contention for a start.

Ghana

The Black Stars have the same number of points as Portugal, but with a goal difference of -1, they are better placed to take advantage of a defeat for someone in the other game. Kwesi Appiah's men mounted a stirring comeback in the second half of their 2-2 draw with Germany, and with a touch more composure in attack (Jordan Ayew, I'm looking at you), they could have won the match.

Ghana have thrown men forward and been prepared to attack in both games - they had 21 goal attempts against USA, and 18 against Germany. However, only nine of those 39 goal attempts have been on target, which tells its own tale. Asamoah Gyan still works as hard as ever as the attacking spearhead, Andre Ayew has given him lively support, and 22-year-old Chelsea winger Christian Atsu is one of the most promising players I've seen at the tournament.

The Achilles heel for Ghana is their defending. They are really vulnerable at set pieces, and conceded goals from corners against both USA and Germany. Opta tell us Ghana haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last six World Cup Finals matches, and although they have good tacklers in the back four, the tracking of runners is atrocious.

The loss of midfielder Sulley Muntari to suspension is a blow, and his potential replacement Michael Essien isn't fully fit. Kevin-Prince Boateng may have to play in a slightly more withdrawn role than he would like, but he has played plenty of games for Schalke as a holding midfielder. Right-back Daniel Opare could return after injury, although Harrison Afful did well in his absence against Germany.

Match Odds

Given their muted performances so far, and the fact they are highly unlikely to progress, Portugal look far too short for the win at 2.265/4. Ghana will take plenty of positives from their performance against Germany, and the resolution of a row about appearance money (the Ghanaian president arranged for a plane to take three million dollars to the players) has further boosted morale.

With Fabio Coentrao out injured, I suspect his relatively inexperienced replacement Andre Almeida might really struggle to contain Atsu, and that could be the key to the Black Stars creating a steady stream of chances. With Ronaldo still way short of his best, and the defence reeling from the concession of six goals in two games, I just can't support the Portuguese at that price. It's worth noting that according to Opta, Portugal have won just one of their last nine World Cup Finals games. Ghana are attractive at 3.211/5, but if you want a bit of insurance, you could back them Draw No Bet at 2.47/5, which will see your stake returned if the match is drawn.

Over 2.5 Goals

Ghana don't do cagey, while Portugal have to play on the front foot to have a chance of getting the goals they need. All four games in Group G so far have featured at least three goals, and three of those matches have contained four goals. The two teams have shipped ten goals between them, so Over 2.5 Goals is understandably short at 1.645/8. There's a big jump to 2.588/5 for Over 3.5 Goals, and that seems a more attractive bet.

To Score

Asamoah Gyan's goal against Germany netted us a 5.04/1 winner, and he has now equalled the record for most World Cup Finals goals by an African player (five). He is 2.68/5 to score in this match, but the 4.57/2 on offer for Andre Ayew to find the net is of more interest. Ayew has scored against both USA and Germany, he is superb in the air, and he takes up some great positions in the box.

On the Portuguese side of things, Ronaldo is 1.910/11 to break his World Cup 2014 duck. Given Ghana's weakness at defending set-pieces, Bruno Alves 8.07/1 and Pepe 10.09/1 might be worth a look.

Recommended Bets
Back Ghana Draw No Bet at 2.47/5
Back Andre Ayew to score at 4.57/2

2014 World Cup P/L

Points Staked: 8

Points Returned: 13.53

P/L: +5.53 points