суббота, 28 июня 2014 г.

Honduras v Switzerland: Hitzfeld's boys to cruise to victory against the weakest side in Group E

Switzerland are looking to bounce back from their 5-2 hammering against France

With a 100% betting record on the tournament so far, James Eastham advises you how to make money on this crucial Group E clash on Wednesday night...

Honduras v Switzerland
Wednesday 25 June, 21:00 BST
Live on BBC3

Match Odds
Honduras 9.28/1, Switzerland 1.4740/85, The Draw 4.67/2

Honduras are all but eliminated whereas Switzerland are level on 3pts with Ecuador in second place behind France (6pts). This obviously means the two sides' motivation levels could be different - Honduras might treat the game like an unwanted friendly before flying home whereas the Swiss have everything to play for. It's therefore no surprise to find the Swiss as short as 1.4740/85 to win - and, while I believe Ottmar Hitzfeld's side will pick up the three points they're looking for, there are probably better ways to make a Swiss win pay (more below).

Overs/Unders
Overs 1.774/5, Unders 2.245/4

Will there be goals? It seems a silly question at this World Cup considering the way the goals have flown in: 69% of all matches to date have featured three goals or more, and generally speaking the final round of games in the group stages of World Cup tournaments can be higher-scoring. I would rather be on Overs than Unders - we saw how calamitously the Swiss can defend when they conceded five times against France (5-2 defeat), while Honduras have already leaked four goals in two games. There should be plenty of attacking play, too - Switzerland need to win to go through, and that should lead to chances at both ends.

Asian Handicap

If the price on a Switzerland win is too short for you, but you expect Ottmar Hitzfeld's side to pick up all three points, then the Asian Handicap is the market for you. My recommendation would be to back the favourites -1.0 Asian Handicap, which is a bet on Switzerland to win by two goals or more, with the bonus that, if Switzerland win by only one goal, you'll get your stakes back (read more on Asian Handicap betting here). I can see the Swiss winning by a couple of goals - as explained above, they are likely to be the more motivated of the two teams, and if they do go ahead early in the game, expect them to create good chances to extend their lead on the break.

Half Time/Full Time

Another way of making Switzerland pay would be to back them to be leading at half-time and at full-time. This isn't my favourite selection as it's very difficult to know how strongly a team will start the game, although the Brazil v Cameroon clash perhaps offered a clue as to how this match will go: Brazil had everything to play for whereas Cameroon didn't, and Brazil were able to start strongly in the relative coolness of late afternoon. The main advantage of this wager is that it gives you the opportunity to back Switzerland at an odds-against price - they're 2.226/5 to be leading at the interval and then go on to win the game.

Cash Out Opportunity

As I expect a fairly quick start from Switzerland you may struggle to find good cash-out opportunities on this game. The Swiss are obviously a short price going into the game and their odds will get shorter if they score an early goal. There may be other games offering better cash-out opportunities over the next couple of days.

Best Bet
Back Switzerland -1.0 Asian Handicap @ 1.758/11

2014 World Cup P/L

Staked: 7pts
Returned: 14.85pts
P/L: +7.85pts

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