World Cup Opta Stats: Expect US goals as Portugal exit

USA have performed better than expected at this World Cup

Michael Lintorn has studied the Opta stats and fancies Portugal to flop as USA and Germany go goal wild...

USA v Germany
Thursday, 17:00
Live on BBC One

Match Odds: USA 9.617/2, Germany 1.684/6, The Draw 3.39/4

Their last four fixtures have produced 19 goals, an average of 4.8 per game

USA v Germany might not scream instant classic, but stats don't lie and they emphatically insist that these sides know how to put on a show together. Jurgen Klinsmann and Joachim Low have combined to make it even more electric, overseeing a 4-1 Germany victory when colleagues for their homeland in 2006, before Klinsmann guided USA to a 4-3 triumph last June after jumping ship. Three of Group G's four showdowns to date delivered over 3.5 goals.

Best Bet: Back over 3.5 goals @ 3.185/40

Clint Dempsey has scored in three of his last four USA appearances

Landon Donovan has been abandoned and Jozy Altidore is injured, but the Stars and Stripes refuse to stop scoring - notching twice in each of their last six matches - and Dempsey is the main reason for that. The former Fulham and Tottenham forward struck against both Ghana and Portugal, and fired in a brace when the USMNT last took on Germany in Washington DC a year ago.

Recommended Bet: Back Dempsey to score @ 4.94/1

Portugal v Ghana
Thursday, 17:00
Live on BBC Red Button

Match Odds: Portugal 2.0621/20, Ghana 3.412/5, The Draw 4.47/2

Portugal have won only one of their last nine World Cup games (D4 L4)

This trend has already helped steer this column to profit twice already this tournament and, as the numbers get more damning, so does the desire to milk them for profit. They have been by far the most disappointing team in Group G so far, if not the entire World Cup (Spain offer a decent counter point), and they have won just one of three prior clashes with African nations in the competition too.

Recommended Bet: Lay Portugal to win @ 2.0811/10

Cristiano Ronaldo has scored two World Cup goals, despite attempting 62 shots (including blocked)

Due to fitness problems, Ronaldo hasn't been at his best since contributing to Real Madrid's Allianz Arena hammering of Bayern Munich back in late April. Though he is still capable of fleeting moments of brilliance like his assist for Silvestre Varela's last-gasp equaliser against USA to maintain their slim hopes of qualification, he isn't his usual devastating self, a problem exacerbated by Hugo Almeida and Helder Postiga's injury issues hampering the supply line.

Recommended Bet: Lay Ronaldo to score @ 2.111/10