Costa Rica v Greece: Back gritty Greeks to edge a close one

Greece boss Fernando Santos could be celebrating again

Two of the surprise qualifiers for the last 16 go head-to-head on Sunday, and Dave Farrar suspects Greece's extra experience will prove crucial...

Costa Rica v Greece
Sunday June 29, 21:00
Live on ITV 1
Match Odds: Costa Rica 2.526/4, Greece 3.3512/5, The Draw 3.211/5

Match Odds

So, it's the unlikeliest World Cup last 16 game of them all, it's a first ever meeting between Greece and Costa Rica, and we now have to find a way to make a profit from it. There's no question that Costa Rica's route through to this match has been the more impressive, and I don't have an issue with them being favourites to beat the first team since Cameroon in 1990 to make it out of the Group Stage with a goal difference of minus 2. We all know how Cameroon's journey went from there, though, and how close they came to reaching the semi finals, and I have a feeling that Greece might just be a shade of value to qualify, having found form at the right time.

Greece were lucky in the manner of their win against Cote D'Ivoire, with a highly debatable last-minute penalty, but the inclusion of Giorgios Karagounis in their side for the first time at this tournament had seen them dictate the game for large periods, and I felt that they were deserving winners. As well as Karagounis, they'll have that other old stager Kostas Katsouranis back after his red card in the previous match, and they'll look to control the attritional midfield battle, a key area against Costa Rica. The two Greek players who have impressed me the most, however, are Borussia Dortmund's Sokratis in the centre of defence and the left-back Jose Holebas, who doesn't play much like a left-back at all.

Greece will more than likely be without their goalkeeper Oresis Karnezis here, and that is a worry, but the question with Costa Rica is whether they can realistically go any further. Their qualification campaign was based on a solid defence, and so too has been their progress here, but there were signs against England (and I'm convinced that Costa Rica played to 100% of their ability in that game) that their hard-running style was starting to take its toll.

I see this as being an extremely tight game, and one which may well go to extra time, but I like the idea of siding with Greece to edge it. These two remind me of two evenly matched fighters, with one having just that little bit more experience. Greece, unquestionably, know how to win. And the likelihood is that they'll do it by a single goal: each of their seven wins at major tournaments have been by that margin.

Over/Under 1.5 Goals

So, I'll take Greece to qualify at 2.166/5, and in terms of the other markets, I can't see this featuring many goals at all. Backing the 0-0 Correct Score at 7.413/2 is clearly very tempting, as the sides look like cancelling each other out, but I want to give myself that little bit of insurance, and so I'll play Under 1.5 Goals at 2.56/4. That doesn't feel like a particularly reckless bet: Greece were a little more open against Cote D'Ivoire, but they needed to win, and their other matches were much more in character. A 0-0 against Japan and a rolling over by an exceptional Colombian side. Costa Rica haven't yet conceded a goal from open play at this World Cup, Edinson Cavani's penalty the only time that the brilliant Keylor Navas has let in a goal.

If you're looking for a trade, then the statistics suggest might want to take a look at the Half Time Correct Score market, given that none of Costa Rica's four goals at this tournament have been scored before the 44th minute, and each of Greece's four World Cup goals have come after the 42nd minute. Anyone looking for a trade may well want to steer themselves in that direction with the 0-0 scoreline in the Half Time market currently trading at 2.26/5.

To Score

Considering the amount that Holebas gets forward, and given that it's hard to find another obvious goalscorer on the pitch in what I see as a low scoring game, then I'll take him at a fancy price to score at any time. He's scored nine goals in his Olympiakos career, averaging one every ten games, and he looked a real goalscoring threat in the win over Cote D'Ivoire, hitting the underside of the crossbar after one first-half surge.

In terms of corners, I think that the market has it right in expecting a low make up, and a high bookings count would be an obvious play, but far too obvious for my liking in this card light tournament.

It's not a game in which to have a gigantic investment, nor is it necessarily a game to watch, but my suggestions are as follows. Good luck, we may all need it on this most difficult game to read.

Recommended Bets

Back Greece to Qualify @ 2.166/5
Back Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.56/4
Back Jose Holebas To Score @ 11.5n/a

2014 World Cup P/L (including pre-tournament bets)

Points Staked: 26
Points Returned: 36.35
P/L: +10.35 points