Karim Benzema will look to add to his three-goal tally
After a sensational 12 winners from 14 tips on the tournament so far, James Eastham picks out the smartest selections on Monday's quarter-final in Brasilia...
France v Nigeria
Monday 30 June, 17:00 BST
Live on BBC1
Match Odds
France 1.51/2, Nigeria 8.415/2, The Draw 4.67/2
Do France really deserve to be as short as 1.51/2 to win this game? I'm not so sure. They romped through their opening two games against Honduras (3-0) and Switzerland (5-2) but then lost momentum against Ecuador (0-0) in their final group match (admittedly with a weakened side), which has affected my impression of the team.
Les Bleus obviously deserve to be favourites to win this game in 90 minutes and will probably make it through to the quarter-finals, but it is easy to get carried away by the fact France are now a side that everyone seems to fancy, rather than focusing on the cold, hard facts.
Let's not forget that the Super Eagles kept consecutive clean sheets against Iran (0-0) and Bosnia ((1-0) and then gave a good account of themselves against Argentina (3-2 defeat) in a game where few people reckoned they had any hope of troubling Lionel Messi and co. I'm unwilling to oppose France - but I won't be backing them at 1.51/2, either.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Overs 1.9420/21, Unders 2.0421/20
When you look at France and Nigeria's results at the tournament so far, there is no clear goals pattern: France put three goals past Honduras while keeping a clean sheet and then thrashed Switzerland (5-2) but rounded off their group campaign with an unexpectedly tame goalless draw against Ecuador.
Nigeria kept things tight against Iran (0-0) and Bosnia (1-0) but livened up when they contributed far more than expected to an open encounter against Argentina (3-2).
So - will France defend stoutly, as they did against Honduras and Ecuador, or slacken at some point, as they did against Switzerland? Will Nigeria goalkeeper Vincent Enyeama and his back four produce a sound defensive performance, as they did against Iran and (to a lesser extent) Bosnia, or make mistakes, as they did against Argentina? The prices make Overs/Unders roughly a 50-50 call, which looks right. For me, this is a 'no bet' market.
Half Time
One of the features of France's opening two games was how positively and sharply they started both matches. In their first game against Honduras it took them until the 45th minute to take the lead thanks to a Karim Benzema penalty, but by then they had already hit the crossbar and come close to scoring on other occasions. Even more impressively they raced into a 3-0 half-time lead against Switzerland in their second game, only playing more cautiously in their final game against Ecuador when there was little at stake.
France will have gained a great deal of confidence from starting so impressively in those opening two games and will look to take control from the outset here. It's worth remembering as well that Nigeria conceded early (third minute) against Argentina and went in 2-1 down at half-time in that match. The odds-against price on France leading at the interval is just about worth taking.
To Score
When France faced Switzerland we flagged up Blaise Matuidi as an excellent bet at 8.615/2, and he duly delivered by finding the net with a fine left-foot finish.
Following that smart goal, and given that Matuidi has got into good scoring positions on several other occasions, Matuidi's price has shortened, but the 5.59/2 on him to find the net in this game is still tempting. If you're looking for a goalscorer bet on this game, Matuidi is the selection.
Cash Out Opportunity
If, like me, you fancy France to start strongly, then backing Over 2.5 Goals pre-kick-off might offer you a decent cash-out opportunity. An early goal (for either team) would see the odds on Over 2.5 Goals shorten significantly and then you may be able to lock in a profit from this market.
Best Bet
France Half Time @ 2.0811/10
World Cup 2014 P/L
Staked: 14pts
Returned: 29.51pts
P/L: +15.51pts
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