Algeria v Russia: Fabio Capello's negativity to be Russia's downfall

Fabio Capello seems determined to play negative football

Despite a win being enough for Russia to qualify, Evan Bartlett believes their dedication to negative football could be their downfall against a surprisingly impressive Algeria...

Algeria v Russia
Thursday June 26, 21:00
Live on ITV4

Match Odds
Algeria 3.711/4, Russia 2.186/5, The Draw 3.613/5

Having come into this group as complete outsiders, Algeria, having ended a run of seven World Cup matches without victory, are now within touching distance of the last 16. A win over Russia at odds of 3.711/4 will see them qualify while a draw would be enough if South Korea fail to beat group leaders Belgium. 

However, Russia can spoil the party with a win, but judging by their opening two matches that seems less than a certainty at odds of 2.186/5. The Russians have looked fairly impotent under Fabio Capello and his unwillingness to start either Alan Dzagoev or Aleksandr Kerzakhov seems baffling, particularly as their defensive 4-5-1 formation leaves talented forward Aleksandr Kokorin so stranded from the midfield.

If Algeria open the game with the same zest and energy as the first two then I cannot see Russia winning here. A win or a draw would suit the Fennec Foxes and therefore a draw no bet on an Algeria win at odds of 2.68/5 seems far too generous.

Over 2.5 Goals

Although Russia conceded just five goals in qualification, their two ageing centre-halves look very short for pace and the counter-attacking speed of Algeria, particularly that of forward Islam Slimani, could well pose them problems.

But if the Algerians have one weakness then it is probably their defence. The centre-back pairing of Madjid Bougherra and Carl Medjani looked fairly shaky against South Korea in the second half and if Russia do get on the front foot at some point then that could be an area they can exploit. 

Although neither team can afford to sit back in this game, my main hesitation with backing over 2.5 goals at 2.265/4 is Russia's complete dedication to boring football and therefore I'll be avoiding this market.

Half With Most Goals

With 79% humidity expected in Curitiba on Thursday, this game could well open up in the second half as both teams start to tire. As eight of the last nine goals Russia have conceded have been in the second-half and all of Algeria's previous eight goals coming after half-time too, it seems a good opportunity to back the second-half to be the half with most goals at 2.0621/20.

The fact this game is make or break for either side could well mean the first-half is a cagey affair and it's therefore worth getting on 0-0 before kick-off at 11.010/1 too and looking for a cash out opportunity as the game gets underway.

Recommended Bets
Back Algeria in the Draw No Bet market at 2.68/5
Back Second-Half in Half With Most Goals market at 2.0621/20

Follow Evan on Twitter @ev_bartlett

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 11 pts
Returned: 4.42 pts
P/L: -6.58 pts