Netherlands v Mexico: Oranje can withstand the heat

Double trouble: Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie are in red-hot form for the Oranje

The Dutch have been forced into an oven in Fortaleza, but Tobias Gourlay believes they can handle the pressure and move forward to the quarter-finals

Netherlands v Mexico
Sunday June 29 17:00
Live on ITV1

Match Odds

A talking point from the competition so far has been the success of teams from the Americas, who went W16-D3-L5 through the group stages against non-American sides. The upshot of so many positive results is that six of the eight teams in action over the weekend are from the Conmebol and Concacaf federations.

Before piling into Mexico, beware two things: against teams from Europe, that record slips to W8-D3-L5; and the Mexicans have been knocked out of the last five World Cups at the Last 16 stage. They are largely responsible for the Opta stat about Concacaf teams winning just 1/9 Last 16 ties since 1990.

The Netherlands had some mighty impressive patches as they came through a group containing Spain and Chile with a perfect record, but for a couple of reasons this is a slippery match to get a handle on.

Mexico went through four head coaches to get to Brazil. A year ago, this column was unfortunate to watch El Tri closely as they scraped past Jamaica 1-0 and played out goalless draws with Panama and Costa Rica, each performance more dismal than the last. Then they actually lost some games, before bringing in Miguel Herrera, just in time to wallop New Zealand in a playoff. All of which means that underwhelming qualifying campaign might as well be written off as Aztec history.

Under Herrera, Mexico looked ruthlessly efficient against an abject Cameroon, disciplined against an incoherent Brazil and ruthlessly efficient once more as they despatched a Croatia team that was forced to chase a win. Three matches is not a lot to go on, but it seems likely Herrera will restrain his wing-backs and take a cautious approach to neutralising the in-form Robben and Van Persie.

Two weeks ago, the accusation was that Louis van Gaal didn't know his best team. The realisation now is that he has a different best team for every occasion. He chose to live on the edge against Spain, was happy to attack Australia, but clammed up when only a draw was needed against Chile.

His young defence played well that day but, in a lunchtime game that's likely to be played in temperatures around 30C and humidity levels above 60%, a draw is not such a good thing for pasty Europeans. (And heaven forfend penalties - the Dutch are almost as bad at them as England.)

With the Netherlands winning nine of their last 10 World Cup finals matches within 90 minutes, and having strong incentives to do so again, we prefer not just to back them To Qualify, but to win in 90 minutes.

Over / Under 2.5 Goals

This market turns on the tactics of the two coaches. If Herrera pushes his wing-backs forward (unlikely) and/or Van Gaal goes for the throat (more likely), the 2.26/5 about Over 2.5 Goals will look generous. You'll need to watch a few minutes of the game first, though - and beware a cagey first half (see below). The best play might be to hang on until half-time and, if it's goalless, jump in at a bigger price.

Remember: the Dutch have conceded in 9/11 competitive games on foreign soil (excluding a trip to Andorra), while Mexico have scored in 11 straight World Cup meetings with European teams.

Half With Most Goals

With a little help from the referee of their Cameroon game, Mexico's three group matches were all goalless at half-time. The Dutch were all square at the break in 3/3 as well (which might raise interest in a Half Time draw bet).

In Brazil, eight of the Netherlands' ten goals have come after the interval. Over a longer period, 10 of Mexico's most recent 12 World Cup goals have arrived in the second half. 

This is one fight to the death that should explode into life after half-time.

To Score

The Netherlands have scored in 25/26 competitive games since the end of the last World Cup. And since Euro 2012 Robin van Persie has scored in 9/11 appearances in competitive matches for his country.

The Manchester United man will lead the anytime goalscorer betting, going off at around 2.68/5 to find the back of the net in normal time, but it's his compatriot from Bayern Munich who appeals most at a longer price.

Arjen Robben plays more centrally for the Oranje than he does in the Bundesliga, but should still be in a position to break into any space left behind by Mexico's wing-backs. Robben has notched in five of his last six competitive games for his country.

Split your stake between the two of them and you'll be in profit if either one of them locates the onion bag (in 90 minutes) in Fortaleza.

Best Cash Out Opportunity

If you fancy the Netherlands to get the job done in 90 minutes, consider opposing them at kick-off, then getting them on side at a longer price after 45 minutes, which is when it could start raining goals.

Best Bet
Back Second Half With Most Goals @ 2.25n/a

Recommended Bets
Back Netherlands @ 2.26/5
Back Arjen Robben To Score @ 3.3512/5 (0.5pts)
Back Robin Van Persie To Score @ 2.68/5 (0.5pts)

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 11pts
Returned: 20.14pts
P/L: +9.14pts