Colombia v Uruguay: Pekerman's smooth blend looks too good for toothless opponents

Colombia's star man James Rodriguez can cause more problems for Uruguay

Andrew Atherley believes the Luis Suarez affair has handed the initiative to Colombia in this last 16 clash between two South American contenders...

Colombia v Uruguay
Saturday June 28, 21:00
Live on BBC1

Colombia

Jose Pekerman made eight changes to his Colombia side for their third group game against Japan and it made no difference as they notched another impressive win - 4-1 this time, to go with 3-0 against Greece and 2-1 against Ivory Coast. 

Group C might have been one of the easiest sections but Colombia could not have performed any better and their quality at both ends of the pitch was clear in their goal difference of +7, on a par with the Netherlands and ahead of Brazil, Argentina and France.

Barring late injuries, Pekerman is likely to revert to his first-choice team from the first two matches: Ospina; Zuniga, Yepes, Zapata, Armero; Sanchez, Aguilar; Cuadrado, Rodriguez, Ibarbo; Gutierrez.

Jackson Martinez's two goals against Japan give the coach a handy dilemma up front, but Teofilo Gutierrez is seen as crucial to the 4-2-3-1 formation and is set to resume his role as the spearhead.

Uruguay

Bouncing back from a shock opening defeat against Costa Rica to beat England and Italy was a remarkable achievement but all their hard work has been undone by the man who provided the spark in the first place.

Luis Suarez put the bite on England (metaphorically) with two goals but then did it literally to Italy's Giorgio Chiellini, leaving a lasting impression on the defender's shoulder and the tournament for all the wrong reasons. A four month ban is Suarez's reward for his latest bout of on-pitch insanity.

In Suarez's absence Diego Forlan could partner Edinson Cavani up front, as he did against Costa Rica, although Oscar Tabarez has the option to be more negative and go 4-5-1.

Match Odds

The head-to-head record is heavily weighted in Uruguay's favour (W6 D1 L1 in the past decade), which perhaps hints at a certain lack of confidence for Colombia when it comes to playing their bigger neighbours (in football terms). 

Yet the fear factor might no longer exist for the current Colombia team, who lost 2-0 in Uruguay during World Cup qualifying (September 2013) but emphatically won the home fixture 4-0 (September 2012). Overall, Colombia were much better in qualifying (second to Argentina, with Uruguay fifth and forced to go through a playoff) and they have looked a better-balanced unit here.

There is no overwhelming statistical evidence that Uruguay greatly miss Suarez when he is unable to play (W7 D1 L3 since the last World Cup) but there is enough to emphasise their star striker is pivotal to their hopes. They lost to Costa Rica in the opening game of this tournament when Suarez was still recovering from injury, he was absent from the 4-0 drubbing in Colombia during qualifying and he was suspended for his handball against Ghana when Uruguay lost to the Netherlands in the 2010 World Cup semi-final (the only other competitive game he has missed in the past four years is a 1-0 qualifying win in Venezuela).

And, as well as the evidence of our own eyes, the quality of Suarez's play at the highest level is clear from his stats at the 2010 World Cup (three goals, three assists) and Uruguay's 2011 Copa America triumph (four goals, two assists).

Just as pressing a concern for Uruguay is how to stop James Rodriguez, who has been one of the stars of the tournament so far with three goals and two assists. In his No10 role, he can open up the flanks for Colombia and that could be dangerous for Uruguay, who struggled with that kind of onslaught from Costa Rica.

Colombia are the pick for the win at 2.01/1, although there are some ways to look for better odds using the Asian Handicap or Win To Nil.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Uruguay's reaction to the Suarez furore has already revealed a siege mentality and they are likely to carry that on to the pitch with a defensive approach, similar to the Italy match where they conceded possession and waited for opportunities to strike on the counter-attack.

They know a clean sheet tends to be vital to their chances even with Suarez in the team (two of their three wins at the 2010 World Cup and all three wins at the 2011 Copa America came that way) and it is worth noting that eight of Uruguay's 12 matches without Suarez in the past four years have gone under 2.5 goals.

Colombia can boast a better defence (the best in South American qualifying, with 13 goals conceded compared with Uruguay's 25) but it does not always lead to low scorelines - all three games in this World Cup have had over 2.5 goals, making it eight out of 16 over 2.5 goals in competitive matches under Pekerman.

Uruguay's likely tactics may have over-influenced the odds, bearing in mind they proved unable to defend a lead against Costa Rica and England, and the best Cash Out opportunity is to back over 2.5 goals at 2.35/4 given the defence-opening tools at Colombia's disposal.

Asian Handicap/Colombia Win To Nil

If you want to back Colombia, there are a couple of ways to increase the odds.

One is Colombia off -1 on the Asian Handicap at around 3.02/1, which is money back if Colombia win by a single goal and pays out if they win by two or more. Seven of their 11 competitive wins under Pekerman have come by two goals or more, which demonstrates how dangerous they are on the counter-attack (they have won seven out of nine by 2+ when scoring first).

Another option is to back Colombia Win To Nil at 3.45n/a, which becomes more possible if Uruguay adopt negative tactics. Again, the figures show that Colombia are good leaders - seven of their 11 competitive wins under Pekerman have been to nil.

Recommended Bet
Back Colombia off -1 on Asian Handicap at 3.02/1 (2pt)

Best Cash Out tip
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.35/4 as Uruguay might not be able to stop the goals

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 11pts
Returned: 17.38pts
Profit: +6.38pts