Read our HoS thoughts on the World Cup & more

Read our HoS thoughts on the World Cup & more

By Gary Wise Jun 27, 2014

Tweet

On June 26th, the final day of Group Stage play at the 2014 World Cup, our Head of Sportsbook (HoS) took over the official @PinnacleSports twitter account to answer any questions our followers might have. The following is a transcript of that discussion, with language and grammar fixed for reading clarity:

Q1. From email: Why couldn’t bettors parlay two third-round matches from the same World Cup group?

HoS: The last group matches of a World Cup are correlated to each other. They are scheduled to play at the same time for that reason, but coaches are not oblivious to the other game status and will alter their strategy depending on the influence of the other game results.

Q2. From email: What would be your best tips to becoming a successful punter?

HoS: I could spin an answer for you, but really, I think our marketing people have done a great job. Watching their videos and reading their articles is a big step. **Note: You can find our videos here: http://www.pinnaclesports.com/media/videos **

Q3. From email: Do you have punters who make a living via pinnacle?

HoS: We have a lot of customers who are considered professionals. They wouldn’t be if they weren’t winning against us

Q4. From @Itfc1972: Will NASCAR ever be reintroduced?

HoS: Likely not, but you never know. I like to offer as many Events as possible. My goal is that clients can always find something to wager on. That being said niche Sports (I am looking at you cycling and badminton) do not generate the same interest as the major sports and thus the time to get markets up and the amount of product we offer for each market is not equal to that of a premier event.

Q5. From @nikolitso: How do you mark a customer as a winner? And what % of your customers are winners?

HoS: Somebody who makes a long-term profit over a large amount of wagers. I have never looked at the % of customers who fit that criteria.

Q6. From @Dharms_1984: When will your NFL division prices go live please?

HoS: I actually don’t know. I’ll have Gary find out for you after the Q&A **Note: We found out later that they’ll go live in late July or early August, though no firm date has been set of yet.**

Q7. From @Covers: What World Cup team have your oddsmakers had the toughest time getting a grasp of?

HoS: Well, the African teams are always difficult because they don’t play many high-calibre matches I think Spain were as surprising to us as anyone else (except maybe Nate Silver).

Q8. From @Covers: Which player (men’s or women’s) would be the biggest hit to the Wimbledon outright book if they won?

HoS: Let me have a look! Madison Keys @ 11.0 for the women and Marin Cilic for the men. Marin @ 21.0.

Q9. From @57percent: Speaking of Nate Silver, how much do his odds play in to your line development?

HoS: As much as customers with many years of information do. Nate clearly is a smart guy, and there are a lot of smart guys. There’s probably some merit to his analysis.

Q10. From: @Dennis7Manace: How much of your pricing is independent and how much from the market with so many companies in the industry?

HoS: I can’t divulge an exact percentage, but needless to say, both are relevant.

Q11. From: @algottfridsson: Will there really be a $1 mil limit on the WC final?

HoS: Yes. I don’t break promises on our products. I said it, so it will happen. **Note: Every match thus far has seen spread limits go to $250,000 and we’re only just about to get to the KO stages.**

Q12. From @nikolitso: You offered an enormous price on Messi to score yesterday (2.00). Other bookies no more than 1.70. Why?

HoS: Well, first of all, our margins are better. Second, a number of our bettors fancied Messi to not score a goal. Maybe they expected Messi to go off early since Argentina had already clinched qualification.

Q13. From Covers: Are all the high scoring games a budding trend for international soccer?

HoS: I did not get my updated copy of this http://backtothefuture.wikia.com/wiki/Grays_Sports_Almanac … hard to say without it.

Q14. From @Covers: Do you see this as perhaps an evolution into a high scoring game?

HoS: Honestly, tough to say. The earlier mentioned sample size issues persist here. It could all be a product of the Brazilian environment (fun, warm).

Q15. From @Covers: And how are you treating totals with the elimination stage coming up?

HoS: We’ll probably be more conservative than after we adjusted for Group Stage goal scoring. That said, it’s the potential end of the tournament for everyone…they may play like they have nothing to lose.

Q16. From @Diogo__Sena : You’ve had ITF tournaments for some months now, would you say it’s a won investment on your behalf? Volume wise?

HoS: Yes, it’s been great for us. Customers love the product and we’re getting good traction on it. I’m very happy with this product. A great example of why volume is crucial to budding markets.

Q17. From @algottfridsson: If they win the WC, which team will make you suffer the most, (futures market)?

HoS: USA, then Brazil, no doubt. That’s surprising, considering we don’t face USA

Q18. From algottfridsson: From which continent do you see the most volume?

HoS: We prefer to not answer these kind of questions for our customer’s confidence and security.

Q19. From @Covers : Suarez banned! How much does he impact Uruguay’s odds?

HoS: Close to a quarter goal, I’d imagine. Maybe 15-20 cents. You think you’ve seen everything in this industry. I still can’t believe he did it again!

Q20. From email: When determining the odds for the event do you set the odds to completely reflect mathematical probabilities of the outcome of an event or do you set your odds based on your expectations of the bettor’s preference?

HoS: We’re part of a worldwide market. We obviously care about those forces, but at the end of the day, we have to risk manage our own activities and not worry about the world market in that regard

HoS: I can’t believe no one has asked me about the USA-Germany match!

Q21. From @nikolitso: Would offer odds for Basketball U20 European Championship

HoS: Most likely. **Note: Requests like these should go to market-request@pinnaclesports.com. We make sure they’re seen by the right eyes.**

Q22. From @Dennis7menace :@PinnacleSports What is your opinion about the ban of Suarez. Fair or strict?

HoS: That behaviour? He should never be allowed to play again.

Q23. From @algottfridsson : What do you do when you think a game is a fix, remove it or let it stay?

HoS: in most cases, we’ll remove it. We’re trying to protect our clients, so we remove if we have suspicions.

Q24. From @PuntingQuants : What’s more important: getting the opening line right or listening to your sharp clients?

HoS: Opening lines are often not sharp…we’re doing some guesswork there. It’s more important for us to listen to our sharp clients.

Q25. From @puntershangout:Hello, do you notice a lot of arbitration bets relative to your normal.

HoS: We have a lot of both. We certainly have more arbitrage customers than most sites do… Since, you know, we allow them.:)

Q26. From @SaintCal22 :How much does the Suarez ban change EPL title odds?

HoS: In the grand scheme, he’s not that important for those odds.

HoS: Thanks everyone, I have to get going. This was fun. We’ll do it again soon. Bet well.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.