Argentina v Switzerland: Bank on the Swiss to roll over Messi and co

Drmic and Shaqiri are a deadly duo

It's South America v Europe in this last 16 clash as Argentina take on Switzerland. Paul Robinson dissects it for us...

Argentina v Switzerland
Tuesday July 1, 17:00 BST
Live on BBC 1

Argentina picked up the maximum quota of points from Group F but they didn't exactly convince that they can go on and lift the trophy. A steady if not spectacular 2-1 win over Bosnia was followed by an uninspired performance against Iran that needed a moment of Messi magic to seal the 1-0 victory in injury time. With qualification already secured, the South Americans then went on to beat Nigeria 3-2, but again, they didn't look great - especially in defence.

Manager, Alejandro Sabella, must be concerned by a back four that have looked progressively worse as the tournament has gone on. Full backs, Zabaleta and Rojo, love to push on but that is leaving Fernandez and Garay exposed as Mascherano is the only midfielder who holds his position. 

Of the attacking players, only Lionel Messi is really pulling his weight as Sergio Aguero is seemingly carrying an injury and Gonzalo Higuain has looked more like a Sunday league player than one of the most sought after strikers in the world.

Switzerland qualified for the last 16 thanks to their 3-0 win over Honduras last Wednesday in what was by far and away their best performance of the tournament. They won their opener over Ecuador - with the last kick of the game - but the team ranked sixth in the FIFA rankings were then thrashed 5-2 by a rampant France.

Star man, Xherdan Shaqiri, helped himself to a hat trick against the Hondurans and he will be full of confidence after struggling to get much game time for Bayern Munich last season. He linked up excellently with lone striker, Josip Drmic, as the Nrnberg man set up two of Shaqiri's three goals.

The Swiss should get plenty of opportunities against the Argentine defence but it's their own back four that will need to be at their best to cope with Messi and co. 

Ottmar Hitzfeld has been around the block a few times though and he will definitely have a game plan in mind to thwart the Barcelona player. In qualifying his side conceded just six goals in 10 matches, keeping seven clean sheets in total. They may have shipped five against the French, but I wouldn't read too much into that.

Match Odds
Argentina 1.528/15 Switzerland 8.27/1 The Draw 4.57/2

These are the 90 minutes odds and Argentina seem plenty short enough at 1.528/15. Their margin of victory in their group games was by a single goal each time and Switzerland are better than any team they've faced thus far. 

The Europeans are a very solid side that are difficult to break down, while having a sprinkling of magic at the other end. We've already seen the knockout matches being tighter than the group games and I expect this to be no different.

Of course, Argentina, could blow The Swiss away if they were on top of their game, but we've not seen it so far and Sergio Aguero is struggling with injury. 

The value is in the draw for me, and once again, remember that this is for the 90 minute result.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 1.855/6 Under 2.5 Goals 2.166/5

The marginal favourite is for overs and with Messi, Higuain, Shaqiri and Drmic on the pitch it's not hard to see why. I wouldn't be so sure though and I am definitely keen to get involved with unders.

Switzerland's game plan will be to stifle the Argentina attack and then look to hit on the break. They will be patient in possession and I can see this one coming to the boil gradually as the game wears on.

First Goalscorer  

He is yet to hit the net at this year's World Cup but Josip Drmic netted 17 Bundesliga goals for the relegated Nrnberg and I'm backing him to break the deadlock at around the 12.5n/a mark. 

As already covered, the Argentina defence isn't look watertight and Switzerland's number 19 doesn't usually need many chances to find the back of the net.

Cash Out  

It's a big ask for Switzerland to qualify but they are available to back at 4.84/1 to do so and I can see that trading plenty shorter in-running - especially if Josip Drmic does open the scoring. Even if the game stays level for a long period, the price will contract and a cash out opportunity will present itself.

Recommended Bets
Back The Draw @ 4.57/2 (1pt)
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.166/5 (2pts)
Back Josip Drmic to score first @ 12.5n/a

Best Cash Out
Back Switzerland to Qualify @ 4.84/1

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 24 pts
Returned: 29.27 pts
P/L: +5.27 pts