Against All Odds: Bank on the Swiss to keep it tight

More cards than Clintons...

Group E concludes tonight and Paul Robinson thinks that the Honduras v Switzerland game will finish with under 2.5 goals.

Honduras v Switzerland
Wednesday June 25, 21:00 BST
Live on BBC Three     

Honduras are deservedly bottom of the group after two games but they can actually still qualify if results go their way. Not only do they need to win this match as well as France beating Ecuador, they also need to turnaround a four goal difference deficit.

Luis Fernando Surez's side will no doubt go out swinging - their arms and feet presumably - as the tournament's dirtiest team won't let up their aggression. They've only scored once so far and while they've let in five at the other end, three of them were against a rampant France who went on to put five past the Swiss.

Switzerland have to put that 5-2 drubbing by France behind them as they still have an excellent chance of making the last 16. If we assume that Ecuador aren't going to beat the French, then 'Schweizer Nati' know that victory will ensure their progression to the knock out phase.

Ottmar Hitzfeld's men qualified for the tournament on the back of some impressive defensive displays. Eight of their 10 matches went under 2.5 goals as they kept seven clean sheets. Keeping the Hondurans at bay shouldn't be a problem and if/when they get in front, it could well be a case of shutting up shop as opposed to going for more.

A 1-0 or 2-0 victory for the Europeans is the most likely outcome so with over 1.5 goals trading as low as 1.84/5, I have to make it my lay of the day. 

Recommended Bet
Lay Over 2.5 goals in Honduras v Switzerland @ 1.84/5 

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 170 pts
Returned: 184.97 pts
P/L: + 14.97 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)