World Cup 2014: The story so far - part two

It's time for Neymar and his teamates to don their scoring boots

After analysing some key stats from the first round of matches and coming up with some profitable wagers Mike Norman updates us after the second group games and picks out some best bets based on the emerging trends...

It was inevitable that after such a blistering, high-scoring start to this World Cup that some of the second set of group fixtures would fall short of the bar set by the initial games. But it's hardly gone from breathtaking to a bore-fest.

In fact we've witnessed some tremendous entertainment in the last five days. Take the Netherland's 3-2 win over Australia and the seven-goal classic between France and Switzerland for example, and you'll have to search deep into the memory bank to remember a better goalless draw than the one between Brazil and Mexico.

And just as I prepare to put together all the stats from the latest round of group games Algeria have just defeated South Korea 4-2 in another high-scoring, hugely entertaining game. If anything, this World Cup just gets better and better.

Most of all though it's been a profitable period for this column with the trends from the opening fixtures pointing us to some nice winners and strong positions in the markets still to be settled.

So fingers crossed for more of the same during the final group games to be played between now and Thursday.

Total Tournament Goals

Although the goals per game average dropped during the second round of group games (3.06 down to 2.81) the tournament average remains at a very healthy 2.94 per game (94 goals scored in 32 matches).

If the current average were to remain the same then we'd be looking at a total of at least 188 tournament goals, so as you can see the goalscoring would need to dry up quite significantly for the 165 or more option - currently trading at 1.330/100 - not to prevail in this market.

If you're still willing to oppose 165 or more total tournament goals - and having backed it at 1.784/5, we're not - then below is what you would need the average number of goals per game to fall to in order to collect in any of the other six options in this market.

139 Goals or Less (300.0299/1) - 1.41 or less
140-144 Goals (180.0179/1) - between 1.44 and 1.56
145-149 Goals (60.059/1) - between 1.59 and 1.72
150-154 Goals (20.019/1) - between 1.75 and 1.88
155-159 Goals (7.26/1) - between 1.91 and 2.03
160-164 Goals (5.04/1) - between 2.06 and 2.19

*anything higher than an average of 2.19 goals per game during the remainder of the tournament would mean that 165 Goals or More would be successful.

Total Tournament Corners

In my last column I mentioned that the average number of corners per game stood at 8.76, and yet we would only need an average of 10.6 from that point onwards to reach the Over 647.5 mark, which was trading at 3.412/5 at the time.

So I'm a little bit disappointed that I didn't place a wager at those odds because the average number of corners throughout the tournament has risen from 8.76 to 9.38. It still needs to increase obviously, but Over 647.5 Corners is now available to back at 2.3211/8 while the 'Unders' option can be backed at around the 1.68/13 mark.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The way the first groups games went (13 of the 16 paying out on Over 2.5 Goals) it was almost a no-brainer to advise a bet on at least three goals being scored in each of the remaining 15 games of the second round fixtures.

And that recommendation proved profitable. Nine of the 15 went over the 2.5 goals mark meaning our 18pts outlay (2pts win in three of the fixtures) returned us 22.96pts.

So of the 32 games to be played so far 22 (68.75%) of them paid out on Over 2.5 Goals, yet slightly surprisingly only six of the final group games have this option as a clear favourite. Two of the 16 fixtures are priced at around the even money mark for both Overs and Unders, while the other eight all have Under 2.5 Goals as the clear favourite.

I'm not sure that should be the case to be honest. True, there are a few dead-rubber games, but there are also plenty of games with qualification and top spot riding on them, and there are games where nations - England and Spain for example - have something to prove.

So the advice is repeated from my last column - back Over 2.5 Goals blindly in all 16 remaining group games.

Total Tournament Red Cards

The World Cup continues to be played in a pleasant manner with not a single game hitting the headlines for being a real ill-disciplined affair.

The red card total stands at five currently and that's great news for our recommended wager of 9-12 Red Cards throughout the whole tournament. Having backed it at 5.85/1 it now trades as the 2.3211/8 favourite.

I'm happy to hold my position however because while there's sure to be more dismissals, it would take one red card every four games from this point on to render the wager a loser. Eight or less Total Tournament Red Cards is available to back at 6.05/1, while 13-16 Red Cards can be backed at 3.412/5. We'll take a look at this market again on Friday.

Team Scoring Most Goals

We backed Germany in this market after the first group games at 3.814/5 and while they now trail by two in the goalscoring stakes, I'm still happy with our position. Below is the current standings and odds to back;

Eight Goals
Netherlands - 3.814/5
France - 3.9n/a

Six Goals
Germany - 4.216/5

Five Goals
Colombia - 26.025/1
Chile - 44.043/1
Croatia - 80.079/1
Algeria - 380.0379/1

Notable Others
Argentina (three) - 7.87/1
Brazil (three) - 9.08/1
Belgium (three) - 40.039/1
Switzerland (four) - 100.099/1
Uruguay (three) - 120.0119/1

I'm not sure there's any outstanding value in this market but similar to last week when we advised a trade on the Netherlands before they scored three against Australia, backing Brazil now at 9.08/1 might represent a decent back-to-lay opportunity.

Phil Scolari's men haven't set this World Cup alight yet by any means but crucially they will field a full strength team on Monday knowing that a win will secure top spot in the group. If they find their scoring boots against the group's worst side (Cameroon conceded four in their last game) then those odds of 9.08/1 will shorten dramatically by this time tomorrow.

And should Colombia be as big as 26.025/1? They have five goals to their name already, play Japan next, and quite possibly could face Costa Rica in the next round (though I'm not sure Italy or Uruguay would hold any fears for them either).

Late Goals

The trend continues for late goals - almost half (46.81%) of the 94 tournament goals scored so far have arrived after the 60th minute - while goals in the first 10 minutes are by some distance the least frequent (4.26%).

0-30 Minutes - 23 goals scored (24.47%)
31-60 Minutes - 27 goals scored (28.72)
61-Full Time - 44 goals scored (46.81%)

This trend has got stronger as the tournament has progressed and it seems the most obvious way to profit from it (if you're not a home to wager In-Play that is) is to back 2nd Half in the Half With Most Goals market.

So that's exactly what we'll do. We should get matched at above even money in all the remaining 16 group games (remember, Tie is a runner also) so we would need seven or eight to prevail in order to make a small profit.

Like with the Over 2.5 Goals wagers, I'll record the odds at kick-off and update my running profit/loss in my next update on Friday.

Recommended Bets

Back Brazil in Team Scoring Most Goals @ 9.08/1 (1pt)
Back Colombia in Team Scoring Most Goals @ 26.025/1 (0.5pt)
Back Over 2.5 Goals in all 16 remaing group games (1pt each)
Back 2nd Half (Half With Most Goals) in all 16 remaining group games (1pt each)

Previously advised

Back 165 or more Total Tournament Goals @ 1.784/5 (5pts)
Back 9-12 Total Tournament Red Cards @ 5.85/1 (1pt)
Back Germany in Team Scoring Most Goals @ 3.814/5 (2pts)
Back Over 2.5 Goals in all 15 remaing 'second group games' as per instructions

*I'll be back after the completion of the third set of group fixtures with updated stats and recommended bets for the knock-out stage of the tournament.

World Cup Profit/Loss (settled bets)

Wagered: 18pts
Returned: 22.96pts
P/L: +4.96