Belgium v USA: Red Devils to kick on after underwhelming group stage

Late goals have been something of a speciality for Belgium

After being hyped up so much in the build-up to this tournament the pressure may have weighed down on Belgium in the group stage but Evan Bartlett believes they should now be feeling settled and ready to take the World Cup by storm...

Belgium v USA
Tuesday July 1, 21:00
Live on BBC 1

Match Odds
Belgium 2.0421/20, USA 4.47/2, Draw 3.55/2

Despite three underwhelming performances in what was one of the easiest groups of the World Cup opening round, pre-tournament dark horses Belgium still managed to get through with a 100% record. Their victories over Algeria, Russia and South Korea were far from convincing but taking nine points from the group stage for the first time in their history will be a big confidence booster for the Red Devils.

In another boost,coach Marc Wilmots had the opportunity to rest some of his first team players for their final group game against South Korea. That breather for key players could prove vital to Belgium, particularly in comparison to the Americans who managed to qualify for the last 16 thanks to goal difference in what was arguably one of the toughest groups of the first round. 

Despite qualifying from that group, the USA managed just nine shots on target in their opening three matches - fewer than any other team who qualified for the last 16 and there is a feeling they could struggle to break down this resolute Belgian defence that has kept four clean sheets in its last five games. 

The Red Devils have won the last four meetings between the two sides, including a 4-2 victory in May last year, and I see no reason to bet against that run continuing at odds of 2.0421/20.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Belgium's backline has been their main asset so far in this World Cup - with goals hard to come by at the other end of the field the Red Devils have relied on defensive solidity to grind out results. But a flurry of injuries in that department - to Vincent Kompany, Thomas Vermaelen and Anthony Vanden Borre - will be a concern to Belgium, although Wilmots is confident that either Nacer Chadli or Moussa Dembele can slot in at full-back with Jan Vertonghen moving into the centre. 

Despite Belgium's apparent weakness at the back, the USA lack a really dangerous striker to exploit it. Although Clint Dempsey has chipped in with a couple of goals this game hardly promises to be a high scoring encounter. Unfortunately, the Over/Under 2.5 goals market reflects this too well and odds of 1.684/6 on Under 2.5 Goals does not look all that attractive. 

Instead, this match offers a good cash out opportunity. Back the 0-0 Correct Score at 9.417/2 before the game kicks off and cash out as the game gets underway and the odds begin to tumble. Just two of the 13 goals involving these two sides at the World Cup have been in the first-half of their matches.

Half-Time/Full-Time

Late goals have been something of a speciality for Belgium at this World Cup. All four of the Red Devils' goals have come in the last 20 minutes of games after generally making the most of possession and wearing their opponents down as the games have gone on. 

Adding that to the fact that the US travelled further than any other nation for their group games (10,188 miles) and Belgium less than any other (1,368 miles) means fatigue for the Americans could well be a major factor as the game moves into the latter stages. With humidity expected to be around 73 per cent in Salvador on Tuesday, back Draw/Belgium in the HT/FT market at odds of 5.69/2.

Half With Most Goals

With those facts in mind it also seems silly to miss out on the second-half being the Half with Most Goals at odds of 2.1211/10. In fact, all six of the games involving these two sides in the group stage witnessed more goals in the second-half than in the first.

Recommended Bets

Belgium to Win @ 2.0421/20 (1 pt)
Draw/Belgium for HT/FT @ 5.69/2 (1 pt)
Second Half to have most goals @ 2.1211/10 (2 pts)

Follow Evan on Twitter @ev_bartlett

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 17 pts
Returned: 12.52 pts
P/L: -4.48 pts