Germany v Algeria: Merciless Muller to crush the Desert Warriors' dreams

Thomas Muller has been Germany's most potent attacking threat

Algeria have done superbly to reach the World Cup's knockout stage for the first time in their history, but Kevin Hatchard says they'll be undone by a Germany side who can play better than they have so far...

Germany v Algeria
Monday June 30, 21:00
Live on ITV 1
Match Odds: Germany 1.3130/100, Algeria 13.012/1, the draw 6.05/1

Germany

Bundestrainer Jogi Low says his Germany team has delivered in terms of results, but admits there's room for improvement in terms of performances, and I agree with that assessment. Germany topped Group G with a 4-0 demolition of Portugal, a 2-2 draw against Ghana and a 1-0 win over USA. None of the performances were close to the maximum Germany can achieve, even the thrashing of Portugal, a scoreline skewed by the first-half sending-off of centre-back Pepe. Low says his players weren't aggressive enough against Ghana, and didn't make the most of their chances against USA.

Top-scorer Thomas Muller has led the way with a series of excellent performances, and having netted four goals in three games, he is a contender to win the Golden Boot award for the second World Cup running. He is now trading at 5.39/2, having been available at 36.035/1 a few days before the tournament started. Muller's relentless work ethic, dizzying movement and cool finishing (the winner against USA was stunning) have helped him make a massive impact. Low says Muller is now amongst the best players in the world, and you'd struggle to argue otherwise. Opta tell us his four goals at this tournament have come from just six shots, and he now has nine goals in World Cup Finals matches.

The support for Muller could improve. Mesut Ozil has buzzed around promisingly but is yet to score or create a goal, and Mario Gotze scored against Ghana but was somewhat surprisingly replaced by Lukas Podolski for the game against USA. Podolski picked up an injury against the Americans which will keep him out of this match. Podolski's half-time replacement Miroslav Klose caused USA plenty of problems in the air, and given Algeria's weakness against crosses and high balls in general, Low must be tempted to start the veteran for the first time.

The return of Bastian Schweinsteiger against USA gave the midfield a bit more drive, so Low has a conundrum there too. Skipper Philipp Lahm (who was superb against USA) and Toni Kroos have two of the three midfield slots, so the other will be taken by either Schweinsteiger or Sami Khedira, neither of whom are fully fit. The back four will once again be unchanged, despite left-back Benedikt Howedes emerging as a bit of a weak link, especially going forward.

Algeria

Algeria have reached the last 16 of the World Cup for the first time, and the North Africans have historical motivation for winning this game. At the 1982 World Cup, Algeria beat West Germany 2-1 in the group stage, but they were ultimately denied progress when the Germans played out a convenient 1-0 win over Austria (the "Disgrace of Gijon") which took both neighbours through.

Algeria led Belgium 1-0 with 20 minutes to go but lost 2-1, they were excellent going forward in a 4-2 win over South Korea, and then they fought back well from conceding an early goal to draw 1-1 with Russia. Instead of ordering his players to dig in and hope for the best, Algeria coach Vahid Halilhodzic has been happy to attack.

Lone striker Islam Slimani is a key player - he scored against both South Korea and Russia, as well as netting four goals in qualifying. Attacking midfielder Sofiane Feghouli is a real threat with the timing of his runs into the box, as anyone who's watched him play for Valenica will know, but he's also been prepared to tackle and break up play.

Algeria spread the goals around (their six goals were netted by five different players), but the concern against Germany will be their defence. They shipped five goals in the group stage, and they will have to be incredibly disciplined to combat Germany's swift interchanges in attack. Jogi Low has predicted that Algeria will be more defensive than they've been in previous matches, and will look to release their dangerous front four on the counter-attack.

Halilhodzic has few injury concerns, and the only change to his line-up could be in defence. Madjid Bougherra could be restored to the starting XI after he was omitted against Russia.

Match Odds

Although Algeria have battled hard and looked bright in attack at times, they are facing a superior side in Porto Alegre. Germany have better players in all departments, and I suspect their 2-2 draw with Ghana in the group stage got their World Cup wake-up call out of the way nice and early. All the talk in the German camp has been about avoiding complacency and showing Algeria respect, and I suspect they mean it. Germany are unbeaten, and capable of going up two or three more gears.

No-one should belittle the Desert Warriors' achievements, but they should be put into context. South Korea and Russia hugely underperformed, and Algeria took advantage. This is by far Algeria's biggest test, and I think it'll be the end of their adventure. The price of 1.331/3 for the German win looks fair, but it can be boosted by backing Germany -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.9210/11.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The market expects goals, with Over 2.5 Goals trading at 1.664/6, and unders at 2.486/4. I understand why, as both teams have scored in every game so far. However, Germany do sometimes slip into a habit of passing sideways a lot when they dominate possession, and against USA they weren't quite as ruthless in attack as they should have been. My suspicion is that we will see goals, but 1.664/6 is too short to tempt me.

First Goalscorer

The odds on Muller to score at any time are a reasonable 1.8810/11, but I like the look of backing him to be First Goalscorer at 4.77/2. The Bayern Munich forward has scored the opening goal against both Portugal and USA, and he is Germany's most potent attacking weapon.

On the Algerian side of things, attacking focal point Islam Slimani is 11.5n/a, while the dangerous Sofiane Feghouli is a chunky 15.5n/a.

Recommended Bets

Back Thomas Muller to be First Goalscorer at 4.77/2
Back Germany -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.9210/11

2014 World Cup P/L

Points Staked: 12

Points Returned: 15.91

P/L: +3.91 points