пятница, 27 июня 2014 г.

Wimbledon 2014: Big-serving Muller can test Federer early on

Federer may find it tough to break the Muller serve today Federer may find it tough to break the Muller serve today

The winners continue to come for tennis expert Sean Calvert, who enjoyed two more yesterday and he's back with three wagers on Day Five of Wimbledon 2014...

The fine start to Wimbledon 2014 continued on Wednesday, as two of my three selections were comfortable winners and the third is still in play.

Andy Murray covered the minus 9.5 game handicap with acres to spare against the hapless Blaz Rola for one of the most comfortable winners of the season, after Sergiy Stakhovsky had landed us a 3.65n/a winner in a straight sets win over Ernests Gulbis.

Sam Querrey led Jo-Wilfried Tsonga by a set twice in the evening match, had a match point, and traded at 1.558/15 from 3.711/4 to allow a nice profit to be made in their five set tussle on Court 2 that was eventually called off at 9-9 in the fifth set last night due to darkness.

There should be more opportunities, if needed, to Cash Out today for a profit with Sam serving first in that one - or let it ride for a very good payout if Querrey takes it.

They'll come back at around 2pm today after the Richard Gasquet/Nick Kyrgios match and there's another clash of big servers to get involved in first at 11.30 UK time on Court 3.

I don't rate Milos Raonic much on grass and he's worth taking on to some extent in his fourth career meeting with Jack Sock. 

The Canadian's serve usually helps him out, but it's not enough on grass simply to have a big serve any more, as Raonic and John Isner's records demonstrate. Milos has never been past this second round stage here and Isner hasn't either and for me much of this is due to their long backswings, questionable movement, lack of volleying skills and mechanical style.

I'm not saying that Sock is much better, but he can certainly match Raonic and take this match past the 37.5 total games mark.

Sock has beaten Milos on the latter's favourite indoor hard and I don't think that on grass there's as much of a gap between this pair than the 1.211/5 on a Raonic win suggests and the 1.728/11 about this one going to four sets or more looks the call here.

Another big server who is well worth taking on is Jerzy Janowicz, who on everything he's shown this season has no chance of matching his run to the semi-finals here last year.

The Pole just about edged Somdev Devvarman in five sets in round one to continue his disappointing displays and there can't be many in the locker room who haven't figured out his serve directions and frequent drop shot use by now.

Lleyton Hewitt is past his best of course, but he's still a very good returner of serve and I can't see how JJ can hit enough winners past the Aussie to get the victory here.

JJ has won just five of his last 15 against top-50 ranked opposition and with Hewitt enjoying the grass just as much as Jerzy I can't see that stat improving today. The Pole delivered just eight aces but with 19 double faults against Devvarman and if the main facet of his game isn't working he has almost nothing to fall back on.

We were really unlucky in the set one tie break bet in the last match of Gilles Muller, but it's worth sticking with today against Roger Federer, who may well struggle to break the in-form leftie early.

Fed was poor on break points yet again versus Paulo Lorenzi, downing my 6-0 set interest against the Italian by converting just six of 23 chances in that match.

He wastes far too many break point chances these days and the 7-6 to Federer in set one looks a great Cash Out bet at 6.5n/a.

Recommended Bets
Back over 37.5 total games in Raonic/Sock at 1.728/11
Back Hewitt to beat Janowicz at 1.674/6

Best Cash Out Opportunity
Back Federer to win set one 7-6 at 6.5n/a

Wimbledon 2014 profit and loss

Staked: 120.00 (based on a 10 stake on each bet)
Return: 220.00
Profit: +100.00

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