понедельник, 30 июня 2014 г.

Wimbledon Women's Betting: Plenty of big-priced value left in the draw

Can Lucie Safarova capitalise on a good draw?

With just a couple of third round matches remaining, the women's tournament at Wimbledon is gaining good momentum. James Boswell is back to update you on the betting with some long odds recommendations for the second week... 

One week down, 128 down to 18 and the 128th Championships are truly under way in the hallowed SW19. The first week has seen plenty of shocks and some wonderful tennis and everything is poised for a great finish to the year's third major.

Looking to the betting, Maria Sharapova has taken up the mantle of favourite after Serena Williams' exit to the impressive Alize Cornet. Sharapova has looked dangerous on the back of her triumphant Roland Garros run, but she is in the toughest bracket remaining, the only one where all players remaining are seeds. She will face Germany's Angelique Kerber before matching up to either giant-killer Cornet or the very impressive Eugenie Bouchard and even if she does manage to battle through that draw, the energy expended will surely drain her too much for the final leg of the championship.

Lucie Safarova, on the other hand, has a very favourable draw. She matches up against Tereza Smitkova who beat Bojana Jovanovski in a gruelling three-set thriller, which included an 18 game third set. If Safarova can get through this, she sets up a meeting with either Ekaterina Makarova or, more likely, Agnieska Radwanska. Safarova will certainly be hoping for the latter, as she has beaten her in four of their five meetings, including the three most recent. Safarova is currently outside the top eight in the betting and looks a good bet for the quarters or semis, making her a good back-to-lay at 55.054/1.

Ana Ivanovic is the only name remaining of our pre-tournament selections, and is still a good price to win the championship at 38.037/1 and I would still fancy her if she can come from a set down on Monday morning against Sabine Lisicki. She never gives up and a break over the rest day will help her regain her composure after a tough first set. Coming through this gives her a good chance for the quarters, facing up to either Madison Keys or Yaroslava Shvedova, both of which I would bet to succumb to the Serb's superior experience.

If you're looking for a big outsider, Barbora Zahlavova Strycova could be your woman. She has a bit of a reputation as a giant killer, knocking out two seeded players already, including second seed Li Na. She will need to continue this, as she meets the impressive Caroline Wozniacki next and would likely find herself up against former champion Petra Kvitova should she get through that. In her favour though is that Wozniacki hasn't been further than the fourth round at a major since Australia 2012 and has had a tough year on and away from the court. 

Zahlavova Strycova's possible opponent Kvitova is not a person to oppose in the betting. Second favourite, she has the better half of the draw, with only Radwanska of the top 15 seeds left in, over whom she holds a 5-1 advantage in her career. She looked brutish in her defeat of Venus and her serve is hard to live with on the grass, so a final run is definitely within her reach.

Simona Halep is the other favourite I wouldn't like to oppose. After looking so good in defeat in Paris, she has had a relatively smooth ride so far in London and plays the unfancied Zarina Diyas next. At fourth favourite, she's got every chance of making the semis at least, so should be respected at that price.

Recommended Bets
Back-to-lay Lucie Safarova @ 55.054/1
Back-to-lay Barbora Zahlavova Strycova @ 140.0139/1 

Already Advised
Back Ana Ivanovic @ 38.037/1

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