Can Costa Rica add to England's misery?
England have slipped out of World Cup contention after just two games, and Dave Farrar believes shock last-16 qualifiers Costa Rica will add insult to injury...
Costa Rica v England
Tuesday 24 June, 17:00
Live on ITV 1
Match Odds:Costa Rica 4.57/2, England 1.9520/21, the draw 3.814/5
Has anyone actually been watching this World Cup? Did anyone see England's opening two games and watch Costa Rica's? I'm just wondering, because the Betfair market appears to have gone mad!
Having laid England to qualify at 1.635/8 and Costa Rica to finish bottom of the Group at 1.3130/100, and advised both in a pre-tournament column, I don't feel any great need to have a bet on this game, but if people are going to offer 4.57/2 about Costa Rica to beat an abject England, then it's pretty hard to turn down.
There's a way that the narrative could go against Costa Rica, with England rejuvenated now that Frank Lampard is playing and there's no longer any pressure on our brave boys, but all logic would suggest that they'll struggle to win, and labour to justify an odds-on quote to beat a team who have defended so well and played with such energy so far.
Just to remind you, Costa Rica beat Uruguay fair and square, then did the same against Italy, and England were beaten fairly comfortably by both. Both of those teams are full of good ball players, but were upset by the energy of the Ticos. England are not as good on the ball, but they're odds-on favourites to win. Go figure.
A draw would suit Costa Rica just fine and confirm them as Group D winners, so maybe it's wise to stay cautious and lay England rather than pile into the Central Americans, but either way we simply have to be against England.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
England's opening two World Cup games have featured exactly three goals each, and with Costa Rica getting three against Uruguay, and creating chances against a feeble Italy, it's wise to get involved in Over 2.5 Goals again. Costa Rica have scored in each of their last seven World Cup meetings with teams from Europe, and with England anything but convincing defensively, that trend looks set to continue.
England have now conceded eight goals in their last three World Cup matches. The trend says, quite simply, that they can't defend. And Costa Rica will be mega motivated for this. They've relished every moment of every challenge so far, and the post World Cup draw words of their magnificent coach Jorge Luis Pinto still ring in the ears: "the braver the bull, the better the fight. We put up our best game against the big teams." How prophetic those words have been.
Corners Odds
In terms of other markets, England and their corners are worth watching again, in what is likely to be a high energy game. They won six against Uruguay, after outscoring Italy 9-2, and with Costa Rica picking up five against Italy and six against Uruguay, I'm going to have another go at there being 13 corners or more. We fell one short in Uruguay against England (after 10 in the first half had made the bet seem like a certainty). It's worth trying again.
To Score
I can't really have a strong opinion on the Goalscorer markets, as Gary Cahill has let me down twice (making him a certainty to score here of course). The only thing that may be worth noting is that England do not look great at defending set pieces, while I was really impressed by Costa Rica's imagination when winning free kicks in the opposition half. Oscar Duarte scored with a cleverly worked header in the opening game, and is worth looking at considering his price of 20.019/1.
To sum up, I think we should be anti-England here, and tread carefully in the other markets. This Group has already been very good to us from a betting point of view.
Recommended Bets
Lay England against Costa Rica @ 1.9520/21
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.9620/21
Back Over 13 Corners or more @ 2.8415/8
Back Oscar Duarte to score @ 20.019/1
2014 World Cup P/L
Points Staked: 14
Points Returned: 16.26
P/L: +2.62 points
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