пятница, 27 июня 2014 г.

The Big Wednesday Multiple: From Sweden to Brazil

Things are hotting up in the Superettan

It's that time of the week where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections:

Bet 1: Ostersunds FK (HOME) @ 1.66 (4/6) - Available on Betfair Live Video at 18:00 BST

Our search for a home win takes us to Sweden's Superettan as FK Ostersunds should have too much for the visiting Angelholm.

Osterunds are up in sixth place thanks to a run of nine without a defeat. Half a dozen of those were wins - including four of the last five - and they have now put an indifferent start to the season behind them.

Graham Potter's side lost their opening home match of the campaign but since then they have picked up 11 points from a possible 15 at Jmtkraft Arena - scoring nine goals and conceding just four.

Angelholm on the other hand come into this game after managing to record just one victory from 10 attempts. It came against the team who are currently third from bottom of the league and on home turf.

It's been two defeats and two draws since that success for Joakim Persson's men and while they've managed to pick up a pair of 0-0's from their last two on the road, prior to that they were beaten 5-0 and 4-3 respectively.

Bet 2: Sundsvall (AWAY) @ 1.7 (7/10)  

We stay in Sweden's second tier for our away win this week as Landskrona look vulnerable for the visit of Sundsvall. 

GIF Sundsvall have dropped to second in the table having lost their last two matches. While that isn't good form, this is a decent opportunity to get back on track. 

After being denied promotion in the Play-offs last year, 'Giffarna' will be desperate to go up automatically by finishing in the top two. The recent defeats can be excused somewhat as they came against teams from the top half and they have at least won three of their last five on the road - scoring eight and conceding just four during that period.

Landskrona are down in 15th place - second from bottom - after picking up just 12 points from their initial 13 fixtures. The problem has been at the back for them as with 28 conceded, they have the worst defensive record in the entire division.

Interim manager, Patrik Johansson, will take heart from the fact that they managed to beat Angelholm on Sunday - ending a run of five without a win - but it's three losses from their last five in front of their own fans - conceding two or more on four occasions.

Bet 3: Ecuador v France (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.75 (3/4) - Live on BBC 1 @ 21:00 BST 

We step up a level or two now for our goal-fest as the rampant France look a good bet to produce another high-scoring game when they take on Ecuador in the World Cup.

Ecuador go into the final round of Group E fixtures with their noses just in front of Switzerland. Given that the Swiss are facing Honduras, it's likely that the South Americans will need to beat France to make it through to the last 16.

That should mean that Reinaldo Rueda doesn't send out his side to defend and that in turn should lead to goals. Both of their matches at the World Cup thus far have gone over 2.5 - as have six of their last seven - and the in-form, Enner Valencia, should cause the French defenders plenty of headaches.

France have arguably been the most impressive team of the tournament to date. A 3-0 victory over Honduras was followed by a wonderful display against Switzerland that resulted in a 5-2 win - including a missed penalty and a goal that was ruled out as the ref had already blown the final whistle.

Those performances probably shouldn't come as much of a surprise as Didier Descchamps' troops had won seven of their previous nine in the run up to this tournament. That spell included 8-0, 6-0, 4-0, 4-2 and a pair of 3-0 wins, and while they've all but mathematically qualified for the last 16, I can't see them letting up too much this evening.

Bet 4: Bosnia & Herzegovina v Iran (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.83 (5/6) - Live on ITV 4 at 17:00 BST

We conclude in Group F as Bosnia & Herzegovina take on Iran in what should be a low-scoring encounter.

Bosnia have been one of the disappointments of the tournament thus far as after a relatively decent display against Argentina, they hugely underperformed against Nigeria to fall to their second successive defeat.

This game is a dead-rubber for the European team but I'd imagine that they will want to exit the tournament with a degree of pride. They shouldn't be troubled too much defensively and while Ibisevic will surely be recalled to play alongside Dzeko, it's doubtful that they'll run riot against the Iran defence.

The Iranians aren't pretty on the eye and it's a case of how many and not if they are parking the bus. A 0-0 draw with Nigeria was almost followed by a historic draw with Argentina on Saturday, but Messi's injury time winner saw them fall to a 1-0 defeat and on the verge of elimination.

They struggle in front of goal and it's now four blanks in six fixtures for them. There is no questioning their dedication to the cause, but they lack quality and that's exactly why the manager sets them up the way he does.

Carlos Queiroz's tactics will be to soak up pressure and try and nick a goal on the break or from a set piece and that isn't conducive to overs. Defending is what they're good at - four clean sheets from six - and if they can hold Argentina to one, it's a bit of a long-shot that Bosnia will rack up three or four.

Recommended Multiple
Back Ostersunds FC @ 1.66 (4/6)
Back Sundsvall @ 1.7 (7/10)
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Ecuador v France @ 1.75 (3/4)
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Bosnia & Herzegovina v Iran @ 1.83 (5/6)

The Multiple pays approximately 9.04 (8/1)

Multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

2013/14 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 44 pts
Returned: 78.23 pts
P/L: + 34.23 pts

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