Thomas Muller has had plenty of headaches at this World Cup, but that won't stop him scoring
USA coach Jurgen Klinsmann comes up against his native Germany in the final round of Group G games, and a draw would suit both sides, but Kevin Hatchard expects a ruthless German display.
USA v Germany
Thursday June 26, 17:00
Live on BBC 1
Match Odds: USA 11.5n/a, Germany 1.75/7, the draw 3.185/40
USA
Regular readers will probably think I have some kind of problem with the USA, as I have opposed them ahead of both the Ghana and Portugal games. I like the country very much (I renewed my wedding vows in Las Vegas dressed as Obi-Wan Kenobi, but that's another story), but I'm still not sold on its soccer team.
Yes they beat Ghana 2-1, and yes they were seconds away from getting the same result against Portugal before Silvestre Varela's 95th-minute equaliser, but they are punching above their weight. Their fitness levels and work ethic are excellent, but there are big gaps in that defence. Centre-back Geoff Cameron had a nightmare against Portugal, and Nani's opener (which bagged us a 4.03/1 winner) showed that left-back DaMarcus Beasley doesn't have natural defensive instincts. All too often, the USA defenders panic when the ball is played into the box, especially when the ball is kept on the ground.
In a twist that adds to the narrative of what's been a superb World Cup, USA coach Jurgen Klinsmann comes up against the country of his birth, the country he represented with such distinction as a striker. Not only did Klinsmann bang in 38 goals in 80 games at international level, but he also coached Germany to third place at the 2006 World Cup. His assistant at the time was Joachim Low, who is now at the helm of Germany.
Although a draw would see both teams reach the knockout phase, both Klinsmann and Low have been at pains to stress that there won't be an entente cordiale, and that both teams will push hard for the win. Indeed, I think both sets of players have been stung by the very idea of a convenient draw, and I'm expecting maximum effort.
USA will once again be without striker Jozy Altidore because of a hamstring injury, and Klinsmann may name an unchanged line-up form the one that drew 2-2 with Portugal. That would make skipper Clint Dempsey the lone striker, and he'll hope to make it three goals in three games after netting against both Ghana and Portugal.
Germany
Having battered Portugal 4-0, things didn't go according to plan for Germany against Ghana, as they were held to a 2-2 draw. Having taken the lead through Mario Gotze's patented face-knee goal, Germany alarmingly lost control of midfield, as Ghana scored twice in the space of nine minutes. Luckily for Die Mannschaft, they had arch goal-poacher Miroslav Klose in reserve, and he scored two minutes after coming on as sub to equal Ronaldo's World Cup Finals record of 15 goals.
Although Germany once again looked fluid in attack, there are persistent weaknesses. Germany are vulnerable on the counter-attack when they lose possession in the attacking third, and there are big question marks over the full-backs. Left-back Benedikt Howedes looked like he was running through treacle against Ghana, and when right-back Jerome Boateng went off at half-time with a hip problem, his inexperienced replacement Shkodran Mustafi looked like it was all a bit too much for him.
Boateng is believed to be recovering well, so captain Philipp Lahm will almost certainly line up in midfield again. Bastian Schweinsteiger is pushing hard for a start in midfield, with Sami Khedira and Toni Kroos under pressure. The front three is likely to be Thomas Muller, Mesut Ozil and either Mario Gotze or Lukas Podolski. Despite his heroics, Klose is expected to be used as an impact player off the bench.
Match Odds
Opta tell us that in nine meetings, these two countries have never drawn a match, and I don't believe either side will settle for a point. Germany only need a draw to seal top spot in Group G, but I expect them to try and make a statement after that debacle against Ghana. The way they attack, with quick passing on the deck and excellent movement, is tailor-made for a match-up with this fragile USA defence.
I know I've been burned twice already by opposing this American team, but even though they may still progress with a defeat, I think their luck is about to run out. The odds of 1.75/7 for the Germany win look attractive - Germany have a point to prove, and the players to shred that US rearguard.
Over 2.5 Goals
With both teams on the cusp of qualification, but still in danger of going out, some observers have suggested this could be a cagey affair. However, the statistics point to an encounter with plenty of goals. Opta tell us the last four meetings between the sides have produced 19 goals, an average of 4.8 per game. All four matches in this group have featured at least three goals, and the USA have scored at least once in their last eight World Cup Finals matches.
Both defences have problems, and I think Over 2.5 Goals is generous at 1.981/1. Given what I've already said about a Germany win, I like the idea of backing a Germany/Over 2.5 Double at 2.588/5.
To Score
In-form USA skipper Clint Dempsey is a chunky 5.39/2 to score for the third match running, while Michael Bradley (who had a shot brilliantly cleared off the line against Portugal) is also worth considering at 11.010/1.
My 36.035/1 pre-tournament tip for the Golden Boot Award, Thomas Muller, is expected to play as a central striker once again, despite needing five stitches for a head injury at the end of the Ghana game. His movement could cause all kinds of problems for the USA defenders, and I think the odds of 2.3811/8 for him to score at any time are generous. He bagged a hat-trick against Portugal, and looked lively against Ghana, and I think he'll be back on the scoresheet.
Recommended Bets
Back Thomas Muller to score at 2.3811/8
Back Germany/Over 2.5 Goals double at 2.588/5
2014 World Cup P/L
Points Staked: 8
Points Returned: 13.53
P/L: +5.53 points
Комментариев нет:
Отправить комментарий