The Big Match Tactical View: Brazil v Chile

Could Chile shock the favourites Brazil in Belo Horizonte?

The most exciting World Cup second round tie is up first - an all-South American clash between Brazil and Chile in Belo Horizonte. Michael Cox considers the complex tactical battle, while betting expert Alan Thompson looks at the odds...

Brazil v Chile
Saturday 17:00,
Live on BBC1

Match Odds: Brazil 1.68/13, Chile 6.611/2, The Draw 4.57/2.

The most intriguing second round clash of World Cup 2014 is a repeat of the best second round match in World Cup 2010, where Dunga's Brazil defeated Marcelo Bielsa's Chile 3-0, in a match that was over before half-time, but had been spectacular until that point. The two managers might have changed, but we should be in for a similar battle this time around.

Chile's current coach Jorge Sampaoli is a close follower of Bielsa, and while Chile have played a more pragmatic gameplan under Sampaoli's reign, they stick to a concept their former manager always preached - the importance of a spare man at the back. If the opposition play one upfront, Chile use two centre-backs. If the opposition play two upfront, Chile use three centre-backs. 

The problem comes when opponents use something in between - one striker upfront, and then someone floating just behind him. That's precisely what Brazil offer, and while Neymar was expected to play from the left flank throughout this tournament, instead he's been brought inside to a number ten role just behind Fred, with Oscar usually playing out on the left. 

This means Sampaoli has a difficult decision to make about his formation. Does he play a three-man defence, keeping a spare man against Fred and Neymar? Or does he revert to a back four, and instruct his deep-lying midfielder Marcelo Diaz to drop onto Neymar? The back three seems more secure, and therefore more likely.

Brazil's use of Neymar as a number ten, however, means they can be overrun in the centre of midfield. They no longer have the tactical discipline of Oscar in a central role - at the Confederations Cup last year, he was capable of dropping deep to launch attacks and help his midfield colleagues win the ball, and there's a danger that Luiz Gustavo and Paulinho could struggle. Especially, of course, against a highly energetic Chile side that will show their energetic pressing game throughout.

Regardless of whether Chile play three or four central midfielders, you can be sure that Diaz, Charles Aranguiz and Arturo Vidal will start, and this is the area where Chile could win the game. They play different roles - Diaz stays deep, holds his position and starts attacks with neat passes, Aranguiz is more of an all-rounder, someone who can press but also help win the possession battle, while Vidal attacks.

We're yet to see the absolute best of Vidal in this tournament, because he's been fighting his way back to full fitness after a meniscus operation. But he got the better of Sergio Busquets against Spain, and if he can get the better of Busquets, he can get the better of Gustavo.

Brazil will face a two-against-three battle against relentless pressers, and it's difficult to understand quite how they'll cope with Vidal and Aranguiz's bursts from midfield. Aranguiz is good value at 10.09/1 in the 'To Score' market - he netted against Spain following a set-piece situation, and has consistently charged past his forwards into goalscoring positions in open play.

There's also the threat of Eduardo Vargas and Alexis Sanchez. They play strange roles - not quite wingers, not quite centre-forwards. They drift between the two positions, which means it's very dangerous for the opposition full-backs to attack - problematic for Luiz Felipe Scolari, considering pushing Daniel Alves and Marcelo forward is such a big part of Brazil's gameplan.

Chile's counter-attacks are incredibly quick, and they love switching play with big, booming diagonal balls out to the flanks, particularly out to the old Udinese duo of Sanchez and Mauricio Isla on the right. 

While Chile will concentrate on winning the tactical battle, Brazil are more relying on individuals for a moment of magic. Neymar is the obvious man to provide that, but Oscar was the best player in the opening day victory over Croatia, and Hulk - assuming he keeps his place - could be crucial on quick counter-attacks.

But Chile should cause real problems here, and give Brazil their first proper tactical test of the tournament. I'm very surprised Brazil have shortened to 1.68/13 in the Match Odds market (90 minutes), and have no qualms about laying them at that price.

Recommended Bets:
Back Aranguiz to score at 10.09/1
Lay Brazil at 1.68/13

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

Brazil have an excellent World Cup record against South American opposition, losing only one of their last 10 (Argentina in 1990).

In contrast Chile, are yet to beat South American opposition in a World Cup, losing in all four attempts so far. Three of those defeats were against Brazil, losing twice at this stage of the competition: 3-0 in 2010 and 4-1 in France 1998, while their third defeat was in the 1962 semi final, by a score of 4-2.  

Regardless of the competition, Brazil have an excellent record against Chile, winning five and drawing one of their last six meetings - all six games ended over 2.5 goals and Brazil scored at least twice in each of those games. Chile have faced Brazil 26 times on Brazilian soil and are yet to record a victory (L20 D6).  

So if you're going by the record books and stats it’s hard to give Chile a chance.   

But I haven’t been convinced by Brazil in their three games so far. Their last group game was against an already eliminated and poor Cameroon side. Prior to that they had to come from behind to beat Croatia (with a dubious penalty) and they failed to find a way past Mexico, drawing 0-0.

I think Chile can make this difficult for the host nation by starting quickly. Four of Chile’s five goals this tournament have come in the first half and, with Vargas and Sanchez starting, they have the ability to cause even the best defences problems. If Chile can get their heads in front early that would crank up the already intense pressure on Brazil.  

I like Chile but, with that poor record in mind, will take the insurance of a goal start and back them at +1 in the Asian Handicap market @ 2.0.