World Cup 2014 Perfect Punter: An angry scream Bjorn of frustration

The accursed Bjorn Kuipers

The Perfect Punter has had a profitable few days, but things could've been even better if it wasn't for a whistle-happy referee and a late, late Portuguese comeback...

Before you start reading, hang on a minute would you? Just a second. I have to get something out of my system, so I'm just going to go out onto my balcony, the one which looks out over the pool which hosts the campest pool party in town every Saturday night. So hold on while I emote.

Aaaarrgghh!

There. That's better.

If you've been following this journey, then you'll appreciate that it's been a frustrating weekend. Don't get me wrong: we're in profit, of course we're in profit, but if it hadn't been for Cristiano Ronaldo's cross and Silvestre Varela's header then we'd be in clover.

Pushing two grand up and heading for the last 16 with a spring in the step and hope in our hearts. I'm man enough to admit that slice of bad luck had been preceded by two bits of fortune, though. Nigeria and Belgium both won when they might not have done, and so we move on and adhere to a golden rule of punting: ignore what's just gone, and concentrate on what's to come. And during a World Cup, there's always something to come.

Before I allow myself to forge forward, though, one final thing about what's just gone. Bjorn Kuipers was still in diapers when Clive Thomas first picked up a whistle, but just as a seven year-old, untainted me pouted a bit when the Welshman blew up and denied Brazil in 1978, so the 42 year-old, degenerate gambler me reacted when Kuipers did something similar at the end of France against Switzerland.

I've learned a few more words in the intervening 35 years, and I used plenty of them, many featuring the letter "U", when Kuipers denied Karim Benzema a second goal. For the record, I've no idea how a referee can be SO specific about timekeeping that he feels the need to blow as a player is actually shooting, but it's not an argument that I'm going to win, so we'll leave it there. Kuipers, like Thomas, would have been perfect at keeping an orderly dinner queue.

As a punter, though, you just know when moments will come back to haunt you. I was delighted that France once again showed their teeth, and am really pleased with the position that I'm in with regard to Les Bleus. I backed them at a big price and they're now trading much shorter, so I have to be happy, but I can't help but feel that Karim Benzema could have placed one hand on the Golden Boot during that game against Switzerland.

It's hard to describe just how frustrating matches like that are for punters. Firstly, your Golden Boot selection misses a penalty, then he gets into position after position, only to see others take advantage of his selfless play.

You spend the last 30 minutes of the match with your eyes riveted to him and only him, curse him when he drops deep, get off your seat when he makes a sharp run, curse again when the pass doesn't find him. And then Bjorn Kuipers happens and you sit and wonder what happened, and end the match with your man still joint top scorer, your man trading a lot shorter than when you backed him, but knowing, just KNOWING, that Benzema will miss out on the Golden Boot by a single goal, and that, at the end of the tournament, Gary Lineker will shrug and point out that, if it hadn't been for that early whistle by Bjorn Kuipers, Benzema would have his name in the history books.

It turned out that I was wrong about Carlos Bacca, wrong about Antoine Griezmann, but I feel like I'm going to be damned nearly right about Benzema.

The final round of Group games are nearly here, and I'm still happy with where I stand, Spain apart. Switzerland will struggle from here, I suspect, but France and Colombia look good for me, and Chile are the only regret, thanks to some dodgy reporting of an injury.

And, right now at least, this Brazilian punting journey is going pretty well. I've had a lot of luck over the last couple of days, but for every Kuipers whistle there's Dzeko hitting the post or Divock Origi of all people saving the Belgium to beat Russia bet. This latest incarnation of Perfect Punter is showing a healthy profit, and while the common sense approach would be to take our winnings and run for the airport, we have to go in again. We always go in again.

So, for the final round of Group games, the logic reads like this: I think that Chile against the Netherlands, for all that there's plenty at stake, is certain to produce goals. I'm not sure about the likely winner, but I will invest in both Over 3.5 Goals and Over 4.5 Goals, both to win as near to 500 as is sensible (that's the staking plan, remember). I'll also keep faith with Nigeria, as they did the trick for us at a stupid price against Bosnia.

They're equally crazily priced to beat an overrated Argentina: it wouldn't be as huge a shock as the price would suggest if the Africans were to overcome a team that looks toothless, if you can stop its number 10. I also can't ignore Colombia going off at 2.447/5 against Japan. I know that it's a final game, and that Colombia may make changes/take it easy, but if they DO make changes, then the introduction of Adrian Ramos or Jackson Martinez would be no bad thing, and I just can't see them taking it easy. And Japan have been woeful, several levels below James Rodriguez and co.

And talking of James, he has been the Player of the Tournament for me so far, as anyone who has watched Monaco this season knew that he always could be. I'm tempted to back him to win the Golden Ball  but there's not much liquidity in the market and also a sense of jumping in after the event, something I don't like doing. And talking of jumping in, the camp pool party has finished, so I'm going for a swim. Clears the mind, clears the mind.

Recommended Bets
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Netherlands v Chile @ 3.211/5 (230 to win 506)
Back Over 4.5 Goals in Netherlands v Chile @ 6.25/1 (97 to win 504)
Back Nigeria to beat Argentina @ 8.88/1 (65 to win 507)
Back Colombia to beat Japan at 2.447/5 (350 to win 504)

Profit/Loss on Settled Bets so far: + 1,108

What is the "Perfect Punter"?

In 2012, The Perfect Punter by Dave Farrar was published. Having reached a particular kind of punting meltdown, Dave decided to change his approach to betting and travel to the events that he had lost money on, trying to get closer to them, learn more about them, and turn a loss into a profit.

Dave is back, with his target the World Cup 2014. He’ll be in Rio for the duration of the tournament, and he’ll apply the Perfect Punter philosophy to the World Cup.

Dave has a budget of 100 per day of the World Cup with every bet designed to win 500.