Brazil v Chile: Sampaoli's men look hot stuff to cause major upset

Livewire: Jorge Sampaoli can mastermind a Chile win

Hold the phone: things are about to get very interesting. This extraordinarily entertaining World Cup has reached the knock-out stages and an intriguing all-South American tie kicks us off. Lewis Jones is sensing an upset that could shake a whole nation...

Brazil v Chile
Saturday 28 June, KO 17:00
Live on BBC One

Brazil

Three games, two wins and a draw. 'Satisfactory'would be the best word to describe Brazil's World Cup campaign at the half-way point.

Improvement is needed as now they face a team with real world-class capabilities.

Any more lacklustre showings and it could be the end of their World Cup. Luiz Felipe Scolari's men were clinical against Cameroon in their 4-1 win, a game which saw Neymar run rings around a static African back four.

This writer, who had tipped up Neymar to score first and Brazil to win 4-0 at 16.015/1, was left seething at the flimsy nature of Brazil's back-four. It's an area that will continue to restrict their progress at this tournament.

Scolari probably won't be making any changes for this last-16 clash with Neymar, Oscar, Hulk and Fred showing signs of forming a good understanding in the Cameroon win.

Paulinho's place may be under threat though as Manchester City midfielder Fernandinho's second half cameo, which included a goal, was hard to ignore.

Chile

Forget Belgium. Chile are the real dark horses of this World Cup.

Possessing a wonderful team spirit, the sassy South Americans play fast football at a high intensity that is a real nuisance to play against.

Spain couldn't cope and lost 2-0, Australia had no answers and were seen off 3-1 and only two late goals from Holland when Chile were pushing for the winner separated the two teams earlier in the week.

The tenacious Arturo Vidal will return to the heart of the Chilean midfield after missing the Holland game with a knee injury in what should be Chile's only change.

Match Odds

This World Cup for me has been a tricky one in terms of punting teams outright in matches thus far. The markets in my view have had things spot on from the get-go. Until now that is.

I know a bit of value is lurking and a hefty bet is in the offing when I open up a market on Betfair and yelp the lyrics of Las Ketchup's famous hit along with the dance. Come on, you know it.

On what I have seen from both teams at this World Cup so far, Chile are an absolute monstrous price at 6.611/2 for the win.

To be genuine World Cup contenders or a betting prospect at 1.594/7, which Brazil are trading at here, in any kind of knockout football you need to have a strong base. And Brazil's core is amazingly weak for a team of such expectation and market strength.

Goalkeeper Julio Cesar is not the man he was once and his handling skills must be giving Brazilians the jitters while David Luiz continues to adhere to Gary Neville's great PlayStation analogy.

Full-backs Marcelo and Dani Alves are just as bad, positional-wise, as Luiz and if wasn't for the beast that is Thiago Silva holding everything together, then this probably would be the worst Brazilian defence of the last 30 years.

Croatia opened them up at will and should have scored more than one while even shot-shy Cameroon found and a way through in the final group game.

In truth, Chile also have question marks regarding their defensive play too, although the enthusiasm of Gary Medel and his troops have made up for their clear shortcomings thus far.

But Chile are trading at 6.611/2 for the win, that's the difference.

Jorge Sampaoli's men have the attacking tools through the energy of Eduardo Vargas and talent of Alexis Sanchez to cause Brazil real problems when marauding into their final third.

Chile will have to ride many a storm from Neymar and the support cast but at a price with such bulk, they simply can't go unbacked. The draw is a 4.47/2 chance.

In the 'To Qualify' market, which covers extra time and penalties as well, Chile are 4.3100/30 with Brazil at 1.292/7.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Everything about this game screams over 2.5 goals. Both teams are far better going forward than going backwards and goals are expected in what could be a bit of a thriller as long as Chile continue to play their no-fear style of football. However, the 1.824/5 is short enough. You can get 2.26/5 for under 2.5 goals.

Over/Under 1.5 First Half Goals

Opta tell us that four of Chile's five goals so far at the 2014 World Cup have arrived before half-time and that isn't a surprise considering the intensity that Sampaoli's men attack at.

If previous games are anything to go by, Chile will go for Brazil's throat early and try and silence what is likely to be a raucous home crowd. This should open the game up and with the attacking talent lurking within the Brazilian ranks, backing over 1.5 first half goals at 2.6613/8 looks a fantastic Cash Out opportunity.

Recommended Bets:
Back Chile to win (in 90 minutes) @ 6.611/2 (2pts)

Best Cash Out Tip:
Back Over 1.5 First Half Goals @ 2.6613/8

Lewis Jones World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 15pts
Returned: 17.92pts
P/L: +2.92pts