World Cup 2014: European side can finally triumph in the Americas

Will Germany or any other European side triumph in Brazil?

Jonathan Wilson analyses the nations that have progressed to the last 16 stage from each Confederation and explains why a European team might be about to make history by lifting the World Cup on South American soil...

Before the World Cup, much was made of the fact that no European side had ever won the tournament in the Americas. How relevant that detail was in an age when international travel is easier than ever and stadiums are homogenised was debatable, but it has been repeated as eight sides from the Americas have made it through to the last 16.

The obvious conclusion is that Latin American conditions suit Latin American sides. There may be something in that and it's certainly easy to believe that Argentina and Chile as well as Brazil, have benefited from the vast numbers of fans who have turned up to support them.

Similarly, European sides probably do find it harder to adjust to the heat and humidity that has been a feature of games in the north of Brazil, Manaus in particular (of the eight teams to have played in Manaus, only Portugal won their next game; it may be that part of the reason for the early exits of Italy and England was that they gave too much in that first group game leaving both exhausted).

The obvious conclusion, though, isn't necessarily as compelling as it may at first appear. After all, five Conmebol sides made it through the group this time - and five made it through in South Africa four years ago. If anything, given Ecuador went out this time so only five of six went through as opposed to five of five, Conmebol performance has declined from four years ago.

It may simply be that this is generally a good time for South American football. As well as Brazil and Argentina, Uruguay have been made competitive by the excellence of their coach, Oscar Tabarez, and a brilliant - if controversial - forward line. Chile have a sense of identity and are still benefitting from the uplift inspired by Marcelo Bielsa, while Colombia have a young generation better than anything for 20 years.

In part, Conmebol themselves must take credit for the upturn. The revised Copa America is now taken seriously by everybody, while the switch in Conmebol qualifying from 1998 to a league system in which everybody plays everybody has raised both revenue and standards.

Concacaf's performance has improved, but only from two sides making it through to three - Costa Rica joining Mexico and USA.

Europe have remained the same with six sides going through (three of them reached the semi-finals in South Africa; in Germany in 2006, 10 of the last 16 were from Europe, which perhaps backs up the theory that there is an advantage to playing on your own home continent.)

Africa has, for the first time, got two sides through to the last 16, one up from the last seven tournaments, while the big disappointment has been Asia. When South Korea slumped out with an insipid 1-0 defeat to a Belgium team that played more than half the game with 10 men, it meant all four Asian sides had gone out.

The worry for the AFC is not only that failure, but the fact that Japan and South Korea continue to lead the charge, as they have since 1998: even after the arrival of Australia in the Asian confederation, there is a lack of strength in depth, with the west Asian game seemingly in full retreat, despite the doughty showing of Iran in Brazil.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the elimination of seven of the 13 Uefa sides means Conmebol is now a firm favourite to provide the winner 1.981/1. That, though, means that Europe at 2.226/5 perhaps offers value.

After all, although Brazil and Argentina are understandable favourites, Uruguay surely won't go far without Luis Suarez and Colombia and Chile are in unchartered territory. Besides, which, the way the draw has fallen means only one of Brazil, Chile, Uruguay and Colombia can make the semi-final.

Greece and Switzerland may not be potential winners, but Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands might be. Not only that but the draw means three of those four could make the semi-finals.

Recommended Bet
Back UEFA @ 2.226/5 in Winning Confederation

To Win the World Cup

Brazil - 4.2
Argentina - 5.5
Germany - 5.5
Netherlands - 9.4
France - 10.0
Colombia - 20.0
Belgium - 24.0
Mexico - 36.0
Chile - 38.0
Urguguay - 55.0
Costa Rica - 60.0
USA - 100.0
Greece - 130.0
Switzerland - 150.0
Niegeria - 270.0
Algeria - 360.0

*odds as of 08:00, June 27