World Cup 2014 Perfect Punter: Goals galore in Ghana-Portugal but steer clear of Chile

The Perfect Punter expects another win for Belgium

The Perfect Punter is still enjoying his Brazilian adventure, and is still in profit. If only he could get the attention of one of his heroes...

I have to confess, I'm in love. In recent days the person concerned has taken my eye off the World Cup ball. They're blond, they're elegant, and they've been a part of my life for 30 years. I'd like to say that I know they feel the same, but I'm not even sure that Carlos Valderrama knows who I am.

He was some player, Valderrama. I know that he's famous for the hair, and he still has it, but he prowled in front of the midfield of that great Colombia side, the tragic one, like a big cat with night vision. Never gave the ball away, rarely failed to pick a pass.

A Valderrama selfie has been one of the themes of the International Broadcast Centre here in the south of Rio. Seemingly every time that I bump into a colleague, they tell me how they've bumped into him, seen him, got a selfie with him. I've now seen that hair in a hundred badly-taken photos, and yet I'm yet to see him, this part of my youth, this reason for falling in love with football. I want that picture, and I want it bad.

I'm still hopeful, though. And I hope that he's proud of the way that his team is playing. I'm delighted that I backed Colombia am thrilled that I told everyone that I know how great James Rodriguez is before a ball was kicked, but I still have my doubts and fears about them reaching the semi finals and beyond. Are they really good enough to beat Uruguay AND Brazil? Maybe. Do they believe enough? Maybe not, but we'll love them while they're here, and I'll treasure that picture if I ever get it.

Colombia did us a favour earlier this week by comfortably beating Japan at the otherworldly price of 2.447/5. I read Netherlands v Chile wrong, was slightly disappointed in Nigeria against Argentina, but it was Colombia who kept us flying, and they did so by proving one of the golden rules of any World Cup.

When a team does "unexpectedly" well or badly, it takes a while for the market to trust them. So people didn't want to believe that Japan were that bad or Colombia's "B" team were that good, but they were, and anyone who had carefully watched either team play could have told you.

I think that the same thing is true in the final batch of Group games. Belgium might not have impressed many so far, but they have won both games and they have been streets ahead of South Korea, who have been awful.

I don't normally jump into bets at odds-on, but value is value whatever the price, and I'm not letting Belgium go unbacked at 1.784/5.

I also think, and it's an obvious thing to say, that there'll be a whole bundle of goals in Ghana's match against Portugal. The way that both teams play and what's riding on the game surely mean that there has to be goals. 2.588/5 may seem a little short for Over 3.5 Goals, but I was expecting that price to be even shorter. I'm in.

Aside from that, just one bet that may be tempting you that I would swerve. There's already a wiseguy buzz building around Chile's match with Brazil, and while I like Chile, regret not backing them, and think that Brazil are a weak World Cup favourite, I still don't think that the home nation's World Cup journey will end just yet.

There are certain "told you so" smart alec bets that build momentum and cause a team to go off too short. And that is exactly what is happening with Chile against Brazil.

By advocating them and backing them, you're not proving how much you know, but how much you think you know, and how much you want to show that you know. Chile are good, and have done better than many believed, but they are most certainly not a better team than Brazil, and should be bigger than they are to beat Brazil.

And then there's their mentality. Brazil do well against fellow South American teams at this competition because they are feared, and so don't be shocked if Chile crumble as they have done three times before.

Don't be a wiseguy and boast about backing them. It can go badly wrong for fancied South Americans at World Cups. And if you don't believe me, ask Carlos Valderrama.

Recommended Bets

Back Belgium to beat South Korea @ 1.784/5 (640 to win 499.20)
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Portugal v Ghana @ 2.588/5 (320 to win 505.60)

Profit/Loss on Settled Bets so far: 1,220

What is the "Perfect Punter"?

In 2012, The Perfect Punter by Dave Farrar was published. Having reached a particular kind of punting meltdown, Dave decided to change his approach to betting and travel to the events that he had lost money on, trying to get closer to them, learn more about them, and turn a loss into a profit.

Dave is back, with his target the World Cup 2014. He’ll be in Rio for the duration of the tournament, and he’ll apply the Perfect Punter philosophy to the World Cup.

Dave has a budget of 100 per day of the World Cup with every bet designed to win 500.