Costa Rica v England: Avoiding defeat a must as Hodgson tries to salvage some pride

It never rains but it pours - Roy Hodgson is under pressure

Our man in Brazil, Matt Stanger, can hardly believe that his England reporting duties are almost at an end, but he can at least see a tiny bit of light at the end of the tunnel for Roy Hodgson as his men try to avoid defeat against the group's surprise package...

There will be a strong sense of embarrassment among the England squad as they arrive at the Estdio Mineiro on Tuesday for their final World Cup match.

Costa Rica, supposedly the plucky underdogs of Group D, have already qualified for the last 16 and may even choose to rest players for the dead rubber in Belo Horizonte. England, meanwhile, will fly home the following day to explain the disappointment of their disastrous two-week stay in Brazil.

Expectations were low, but not so reduced that a first exit in the group stage since 1958 was predicted.

There is already pressure on Roy Hodgson to justify FA chairman Greg Dyke's proposal that he should remain to see out a four-year cycle.

Only a week ago, the manager was cautiously optimistic about beating Uruguay and securing second spot behind Italy as both supporters and the media hailed an attacking approach in Manaus. But football is a fickle game, and Hodgson has been around long enough to expect intense criticism. Although he plans to stay in the job, it is difficult not to conclude that his tenure has been a failure.

It is clear that Hodgson hopes to avoid that accusation by pointing to his record of blooding young talent into the first team, and he has already confirmed that the process will continue against Costa Rica. "I'll pick the side with a view to making certain all the players get some minutes," said Hodgson on Sunday, with both Ross Barkley and Luke Shaw tipped to start.

That may further appease fans who remain hopeful of a brighter future and a renewed challenge at France 2016, but it is worth remembering that both Germany and the Netherlands brought younger squads to Brazil.

Despite Dyke's backing, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Hodgson dismissed if he fails to end the tournament with a respectable result, and so there is still a great deal riding on England's final fixture. Costa Rica may have beaten Uruguay and Italy to stand top of the group, but England must reinforce their manager's assertion that they are heading in the right direction.

A third defeat, at odds of 1.8810/11, would surely be too much for Hodgson to survive. A quarter-final in Kiev at Euro 2012 to a pointless performance at the World Cup two years later would not indicate the improvement the FA have claimed.

Costa Rica will obviously pose a threat, however, and in Joel Campbell they have a player to strike fear into an England defence already scarred by Luis Suarez. The Arsenal youngster impressed on loan to Olympiakos last season, scoring a stunning goal against Manchester United in the Champions League, and kicked off his World Cup with a goal and an assist against Uruguay. He can be backed at 8.27/1 to open the scoring on Tuesday and increase England's misery.

Considering Hodgson's intention to make changes, Rickie Lambert is also a decent shout to notch first at a reasonable 6.86/1. The striker played just three minutes against Uruguay, but has an admirable record of three goals in seven caps and will be keen to impress as he bids to remain a part of the squad for Euro 2016 qualifying. Barkley, listed at [11.0, is another to stir interest following his exciting displays from the bench.

After England were criticised for their slack defensive performances in the first two matches, one bet to look out for against Costa Rica is the 2.01/1 on Under 2.5 Goals. It's likely that Hodgson will revert to a more cautious approach knowing the potential consequences of another defeat, and he will aim to avoid being vulnerable to Los Ticos' lightning quick counter-attacks.

There is no value in backing England to break their losing habit with a win, however, with the Three Lions listed at 1.8810/11 for the victory. A draw would prevent further embarrassment - also ensuring Costa Rica top the group - and with the changes that are expected to both teams it's likely to be a close encounter. Odds of 3.8514/5 for the draw are certainly tempting, as is the 8.07/1 on a 1-1 scoreline.

Recommended Bets

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.01/1
Back The Draw @ 3.8514/5
Back 1-1 Correct Score @ 8.07/1