Rising Star: Periic represents huge value to fire first
With Cameroon 30.029/1 to beat Group B leaders Brazil, this clash is shaping up as a straight knockout when third-placed Croatia meet second-placed Croatia on Monday in Recife. Lewis Jones is attacking the goalscorer market in his search for finding value....
Croatia v Mexico
Monday 23 June, KO 21:00
Live on ITV4
Group A Permutations
In simple terms, Croatia need a win to qualify while Mexico only need a point to secure their passage into the last-16.
Croatia could qualify with a draw in the unlikely event that Brazil lose to Cameroon, but the Africans are trading at 30.029/1 to win that game. Mexico must better Brazil's result to finish top.
There is a teeny weeny chance that Brazil and Mexico's fate could be decided by the drawing of lots but that will only occur if they both lose and finish with an identical goal difference. I wouldn't want to be the guy drawing that lot. No pressure and all that.
Croatia
Croatia got their World Cup campaign off and running with a 4-0 thumping win over an abysmal Cameroon last time out.
It was just what Niko Kovac's team deserved after more than matching Brazil for large parts in their opening game 3-1 defeat.
That 4-0 scoreline was perhaps a little skewed due to the fact the Africans were all at sea in the closing stages when reduced to ten-men but the way Croatia fizzed the ball through their midfield was mighty impressive.
This do-or-die clash will provide them with more defensive questions to answer and with both teams possessing similar styles, this could be one of the matches of the tournament.
It's doubtful that Kovac will make any changes for the match with Mario Mandzukic's return from suspension against Cameroon giving the Croats a huge attacking boost.
Mexico
It was clear to see at the full-time whistle against Brazil just how much their 0-0 draw meant to the Mexicans. It's put them in a fantastic position to reach the last-16 of a World Cup for the sixth tournament running.
Miguel Herrera's have been very good value for that result and the 1-0 win over Cameroon. They play with confidence and are very assured in possession. Don't expect the larger than life Herrera to change a winning formula.
Match Odds
Much in the same style as their opening two games, Croatia have been very popular in the outright market. The Europeans are trading as favourites for this clash at 2.68/5 with Mexico available at 3.55/2.
On what I've seen from both teams so far, this is a match that is far too close to call.
When this happens in football betting, there's only one play to consider: the draw. The 3.55/2 is juicy enough to have a play on from a Cash Out perspective, for sure.
It will trade much shorter in-running and the only thing putting me off recommended it as an outright tip is the fact that this is a group decider and a late goal for either team is a huge runner as they push on.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Another very tight market that is probably best watched than getting involved with. Over 2.5 can be backed at 2.26/5 and overs at 1.84/5, which has been strongly backed in the last 24 hours.
First Goalscorer
There's always one player at a major tournament that springs from nowhere into the world-class territory as a professional football.
This year's candidate for such status, to my eyes anyway, has been Croatian midfielder Ivan Periic.
The Wolfsburg midfielder showed some very nice touches in the opening game against Brazil but rocketed to another level of brilliance against Cameroon.
He's one of these players that glides around the pitch, beating players with ease and by the look of his play against the Africans, he may be plying his trade at a higher level than Wolfsburg very soon. Liverpool have been reportedly sniffing around to acquire his services.
His assist for Ivica Olic's opening goal - one of four chances he created for his teammates - was an underrated bit of play and his goal identified the pace and power within his ability too.
Taking the ball past his marker, he roared towards the Cameroon goal and finished with aplomb. There is certainly a bit of Gareth Bale about him.
In a very tight outright betting heat that has made my brain hurt for the last 24 hours trying to find an angle to exploit, the value call looks to be with siding with Periic to find the back of the net first.
The classy Croatian is a player that thrives on confidence and he ended the season like a house on fire for his club side, scoring five in his last five games.
Not only is he a threat with the ball at his feet, he also is a rangy individual that possesses a big leap, which makes him a source of opportunity from set-pieces, something that Mexico have struggled to deal with at this World Cup.
Cameroon had two guilt-edge chances to score in the opening game from aerial situations while only Thiago Silva will know how he missed from three yards out with a header in the Brazil game.
In a market that is dominated by the big names like Mandzukic, Periic has been undervalued and is a superb 8.615/2 chance to notch first.
Recommended Bets
Back Ivan Periic to score first @ 8.615/2 (1pt)
Best Cash Out Tip
Back the draw @ 3.55/2
Lewis Jones World Cup 2014 P/L
Staked: 13pts
Returned: 17.92pts
P/L: +4.92pts
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