World Cup 2014: 669/1 Rodriguez odds-on to win Golden Boot

Colombia's James Rodriguez has been matched at 670.0 to win the World Cup Golden Boot award

With just four games remaining in this year's World Cup Mike Norman takes us through some of Betfair's main Exchange markets and updates us on the current state of play in each...

Winner

Argentina - 3.613/5
Germany - 3.7511/4
Brazil - 3.9n/a
Netherlands - 4.94/1

After winning their quarter-final against Colombia on Friday night Brazil were generally available to back at 3.185/40 to win the World Cup, but as I alluded to in my World Cup report the host nation's problems were mounting up.

Thiago Silva was already certain to miss the semi-final through suspension and on Saturday it was revealed that star striker Neymar will miss the rest of the competition after fracturing a vertebra in his spine towards the end of his side's latest victory.

Of the 31m+ matched in this market more than 12m has been matched on Brazil at odds ranging from a high of 6.611/2 down to 2.8815/8. The host nation are now the third favourites at 3.9n/a to lift the trophy next Sunday.

Almost 9m has been matched on current favourites Argentina, who once again failed to impress in their narrow victory over Belgium, while in excess of 6m and 4m respectively has been matched on Germany and the Netherlands, the latter now trading at 4.94/1 having been matched at a high of 65.064/1.

Golden Boot

James Rodriguez (6G, 2A) - 1.584/7
Lionel Messi (4G, 1A ) - 6.86/1
Thomas Muller (4G, 2A) - 7.413/2
Robin van Persie (3G 0A) - 24.023/1
Arjen Robben (3G, 1A) - 55.054/1

Having been matched at a now seemingly incredible high of 670.0669/1 James Rodriguez is a very worthy favourite at 1.68/13 to win the World Cup Golden Boot award.

The key point to note in this market is that if two or more players are tied on the amount of goals scored then the winner will be the player deemed to have made the most assists.

At present Rodriguez has six goals and two assists meaning that both Thomas Muller and Lional Messi would need to score at least three goals to definitely move above the Colombian star, or failing that then they would need to score two goals and add at least one (Muller) or two (Messi) assists to their name.

The Dutch pairing of Robin van Persie and Arjen Robben need to score at least three goals to have any chance of winning the award.

Team Scoring Most Goals

Netherlands (12) - 1.558/15
Germany (10) - 5.49/2
Brazil (10) - 7.06/1
Argentina (8) - 12.011/1
Colombia (12) - 28.027/1

If you believe that Argentina will beat the Netherlands to nil in Wednesday's second semi-final then Colombia could still be a player in this market, though effectively their odds are 14.013/1 as the best you can hope for is a dead-heat.

But given Brazil's selection problems ahead of the first semi-final it's hard not to be tempted by Germany's current quote of 5.49/2.

Joachim Low's men trail by two at present but if the can score a few goals at least in reaching the final then you will be in an excellent position to lock in a profit before the Dutch take to the field the following day. Of course, by the same token the same applies to Brazil so it all boils down to who you think will progress on Tuesday and whether you think the game will contain goals.

As for Argentina then they need to score at least five more goals from this point to render a payout in this market. And if you think they'll manage that then Alejandro Sabella's men will surely go extremely close to lifting the World Cup with that man Messi having a pivotal role to play.

Argentina/Messi is available to back at 12.011/1 in the Winner/Golden Boot combination market.