Ted Knutson World Cup Quarterfinals Q&A Transcript

Ted Knutson World Cup Quarterfinals Q&A Transcript

By Gary Wise Jul 4, 2014

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On July 3rd, 2014, Pinnacle Sports senior soccer trader and widely respected soccer analyst Ted Knutson (Knut) took over the official @PinnacleSports twitter account for a special World Cup Quarterfinals discussion. The conversation was divided into two parts: Ted’s predictions for the quarterfinals and beyond, and a Q&A exchange with our followers. Below, find a tidied up transcript of how it all unfolded.

Knutson’s predictions

Pinnacle Sports’ Manager of Social Media (MSM) mediated this portion of the event.

MSM: As promised, to start, I’m going ask Ted for a few predictions. Please keep in mind that these are Ted’s predictions and that your betting decisions are your own. That said, I’m curious to know how he thinks this will all play out. So we start with Brazil-Colombia. Ted, what will our final score be?

Knut: I think it’s 1-1 and I think Columbia win it in penalties.

MSM: HFA not enough?

Knut: Hasn’t been enough so far. They have two draws in four games!

MSM: France-Germany final score?

Knut: I’m really on the fence with this one. I’ll go 2-1 GER, but with no confidence. You’re forcing my hand.

MSM: Netherlands-Costa Rica?

Knut: 3-0 NED. CRC have had a good run, but I think it comes to an end here.

MSM: …and Argentina-Belgium?

Knut: I have 1-0 Belgium.

MSM: Golden Boot? Who do you have winning?

Knut: It’s funny, I have trouble seeing past Neymar, but I have them losing to COL, so I have to say Muller.

MSM: Not James Rodriguez?

Knut: I don’t have COL going to the finals. I’m seeing a NED-GER final, so nope, not James Rodriguez

MSM: OK, lastly, who wins that Netherlands-Germany final?

Knut: Ze Germans.

Q&A session

Q1. From @cbrentv3: If the World Cup was played in the fall, would America care as much?

Knut: That’s a tricky question. I think soccer in America has been changing a lot, since I was a kid anyway. I think there’s enough sustainable interest that everyone would be interested. Would it get crowded out by American sports? There’s only so much attention span to go around.

Q2. From @benjaminpugsley: What did you make of the USA’s performance last night (in R16)?

Knut: As a fan, I was very proud. I thought it was a really enjoyable performance. As an analyst, the defense had a lot to answer for. Howard was the only reason they were in that game.

Q3. From @Dennis7menace: If the World Cup wasn’t in Brazil or any of the remaining countries, which one would you have priced as favorite to win it?

Knut: I still have Germany. Pre-tournament, I said Germany and Spain were the neutral favorites.

@Dennis7menace: Are you convinced by the way that they’ve played so far?

Knut: I’m not convinced by how anybody has played. I think all of the teams are flawed. Germany have a ton of attacking talent, solid defenders (esp if Hummels is fit). The weakest area might be manager, but their manager is still better than some teams’. I think Van Gaal is the best manager left…that’s part of why I have Netherlands going to the final.

Q4. From @shackfu99: How would I convert your 3 way lines for World Cup to a two-way ties push?

Knut: State secret. Most of these are on a buy/sell, so you’ll be able to see the zero (DNB) line.

Q5. From @Nick_Crossland: Will exhaustion set in now for any of the teams following 120-minute matches in the heat? I’m looking at you Costa Rica.

Knut: It’s tough for all the teams. The World Cup is a grinder. Fatigue and injuries (and muscle injuries…hamstrings etc) start to set in. Rotation is a must, but you still want to play your best players. Very, very hard.

Q6. From @Darkagefootball: (Regarding Golden Boot) what about goals in the 3rd/4th play off though…if you think Colombia will beat Brazil on pens?

Knut: I don’t pay attention to friendlies:) I think Muller is still the right choice.

Q7: From email: With Lukaku scoring on Tim Howard, how much do you think club play familiarity plays into these matches?

Knut: None, actually, aside from penalties. Teams play very differently.

Q8. From @BradCole: Thoughts on betting market valuation of Brazil vs Goldman/538?

Knut: I think the 538 model got almost everything right except for their Brazil valuation. Very impressive work. Goldman’s headline number was impossible, so I didn’t pay any attention to it. I can’t say why 538 got Brazil wrong, but it looks like they thought the team was too good or they gave them too much for home field. As we’ve seen so far, that Brazil team isn’t particularly good.

@BradCole: What about the persistent undervaluation of Germany by 538? Seems like markets love UEFA, 538 less so.

Knut: That depended entirely on who they were playing. 538 felt there was a continental advantage and in most cases they were right. Judging by the crowds. There were a lot of matches that looked like Colombia, Argentina or Mexico home games. Fans sway referees.

@BradCole: So why do you think the markets missed that so much? Customer bias? Bias by the books?

Knut: Two words: Small N. Unlike club football, international football has few games. It’s much harder to have a handle on what’s actually going on across so many countries, players, and managers.

Q9. From @gui_m_p : Is the WC market more efficient, considering the abnormal amount of money on it (in general more $ means more efficient)?

Knut: All big events are going to be distorted by public money. The biggest event isn’t going to deviate from that pattern. I have to run, but I want to say this has been an awesome World Cup. None have come close since I started following. Also want to say that you should check out our EPL season points totals, H2Hs and outrights, since I worked hard of them! I like to call them the fan appreciation props. Take care everyone! Enjoy the ending!

Click here for the latest 2014 World Cup Quarterfinal odds.

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