Brazil v Colombia: Neymar can inspire hosts to new heights

Neymar can be the first to expose the lack of pace at the heart of Colombia's defence

Colombia have arguably been the standout team of the tournament so far, but Andrew Atherley believes home advantage will make the difference for Brazil despite the huge weight of expectation...

Brazil v Colombia
Friday July 4, 21:00
Live on ITV1

Brazil

It was squeaky-bum time for the hosts in their last 16 clash against Chile, who took them to a penalty shootout where a nation held its breath and Neymar held his nerve. Brazil survived and perhaps they will draw strength from having been the width of the crossbar from going out as extra time drew to a close with the sides locked at 1-1.

Two crucial pieces of team news: Neymar was quickly reported fit to play after picking up thigh and knee injuries against Chile, while the less heralded but nonetheless important defensive midfielder Luiz Gustavo. is suspended

In Gustavo's absence, Luiz Felipe Scolari is openly contemplating switching from 4-2-3-1 to 3-5-2 - the system he used with Brazil to win the 2002 World Cup.

Colombia

Apart from the Netherlands, Colombia are the only other side with a 100% record (in 90 minutes) and, inspired by James Rodriguez, they were impressive again in the last 16 with a 2-0 victory over Uruguay.

Rodriguez, with five goals and two assists, has been the star of the tournament so far and he is averaging a goal every 62 minutes (compared with 92 for Neymar).

Jackson Martinez was the one change to the established line-up for the Uruguay game, replacing Victor Ibarbo as part of the attacking midfield three behind lone striker Teofilo Gutierrez. Jose Pekerman has a settled 4-2-3-1 and the team largely picks itself.

Match Odds

It could be argued the match odds here are a classic case of a top team being talked down, while the bright young things are lauded, and if that's your view then Brazil are going to appeal as good value at 1.865/6. On the other hand, if Colombia are the team to expose the supposed flaws in the hosts, they are a giveaway at 4.84/1.

Having followed Group C closely, I've been a big fan of Colombia all the way through but I'm going to desert them now because Brazil at home at odds of 1.865/6 are crying out to be backed.

Yes, of course they haven't been as impressive as everybody thought they might be, but teams rarely are over a run of seven matches (the length of time it takes to win a World Cup). And let's not forget the Selecao are unbeaten in 41 games in Brazil, with their last home defeat coming 12 years ago in a friendly against Paraguay.

The 1-1 against Chile was the first time in 19 competitive home matches that Brazil scored and didn't win. Viewed in those terms, it boils down to this: do you think Brazil will score?

I think they will because Scolari's side pose a threat Colombia have yet to face in this World Cup - a team with the talent to run directly at the heart of their defence, which tends to sit deep to compensate for the lack of pace of 38-year-old captain Mario Yepes.

Neymar looks exactly the type of player to hurt Colombia and we know when he plays well, so do Brazil. Starting with last year's Confederations Cup, Brazil have won the last 11 matches in which Neymar has scored. 

The likes of Greece and Uruguay minus Luis Suarez could never hope to test Colombia in that way but still Los Cafeteros' defence wobbled when put under second-half pressure by Ivory Coast and Uruguay.

That pressure is likely to come from the start against Brazil and key to Colombia's hopes will be the covering of defensive midfielder Carlos Sanchez, who has been the unsung hero with his quietly impressive performances. If Neymar can evade him, Brazil have the winning of this match.

None of which is to say Colombia cannot win. Gustavo's absence from the holding role in Brazil's midfield is exactly what they didn't want against Rodriguez, who has been brilliant at finding the holes in lines of defence and could wreak havoc again if Scolari's game plan is not spot on.

That helps to explain why Scolari is thinking about a change of system, although switching to 3-5-2 carries risks, as Colombia are strong down the flanks and had considerable success that way against Uruguay.

It is also worth noting that Brazil's two draws in this World Cup have come against teams from the Americas (Mexico and Chile), which gives Colombia at least a chance of a draw.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

This World Cup has exceeded most expectations for goals and attacking football, but the scoring rate tends to slow down in the later stages of most tournaments of this type and we have seen that already in Brazil, with seven of the eight matches in the last 16 having had under 2.5 goals in 90 minutes.

Certainly that makes Under 2.5 Goals well worth considering at 1.875/6 but goals look more likely here given the quality of attacking players on show and the ability of both teams to conjure goals from a position of parity or deficit (as Brazil have done for five of their eight goals) rather than just pile on goals once in front and able to counter-attack.

Considering Both Teams To Score is 1.9310/11, which looks a reasonable shout, Over 2.5 Goals has to be decent value at 2.1211/10 and it could be a good Cash Out opportunity.

Taking into account last year's Confederations Cup and the current tournament, six of Brazil's last nine competitive matches on home soil have had over 2.5 goals, which rather belies the impression of them as a struggling team.

Asian Handicap

When Brazil win under Scolari, they tend to win big (15 of their 18 victories since his return have been by two or more goals) and that points to a decisive success if they can throw off the shackles of expectation.

In the search for an odds-against bet, Brazil off -1 on the Asian Handicap is an attractive option at 2.427/5 - the bet is a winner if they win by two goals or more, with stakes returned if they win by one and stakes lost if they fail to win.

Recommended Bet
Back Brazil to beat Colombia at 1.865/6 (2pt)

Best Cash Out Opportunity
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.1211/10

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 13pts
Returned: 23.38pts
P/L: +10.38pts