Will Giraldo (and Sean) be jumping for joy this week?
Tennis expert Sean Calvert turns his attention to the clay where he has found a few attractively priced selections who could go well in the German Open in Hamburg this week...
The ATP World Tour continues its tricky to predict mini-season that this year is still a no-man's land between the end of grass and the start of the hard swing.
The good news is that next year's tour will see zero weeks with only clay court events to try and unpick once the French Open is over and those averse to betting on red stuff can focus on the hard.
I personally find clay much tougher to make picks in due to the varying conditions and its over reliance on physical conditioning of the players - which in itself is guesswork.
Last week's Stuttgart and Bastad tournaments emphasised this theory, with a string of crazy results, including eight underdog winners priced between 2.506/4 and 6.25/1 in Sweden and five such results in Germany.
Week 29 sees one clay event and one hard court tournament, with a 500 on the dirt in Hamburg and a 250 in Bogota.
The German Open Tennis Championships 2014 is played on clay that's generally regarded as slow and probably will be again after all the rain around in Germany that was such a problem in Stuttgart last week.
Fortunately for Hamburg its tournament has a roof on the main court and rain is set to ease away into sunshine by midweek.
Our top seed here this week is David Ferrer, who was one of those short-priced losers in Bastad last week in a surprise defeat to Carlos Berlocq and he looks skinny enough here at 2.75n/a.
Alternatives in that top half of the draw include Santiago Giraldo, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Federico Delbonis and Mikhail Youzhny, with the likes of Juan Monaco, Fernando Verdasco, Roberto Bautista-Agut and Andreas Seppi other possibles.
Monaco is a former winner here, but he's been suffering with a hip injury, while Seppi has been playing Bundesliga with mixed results after an early loss at Wimbledon.
The Italian has never won a 500 and his price of 8079/1 reflects his chances, while surely Bautista-Agut will be too tired after a run to the title in Stuttgart on top of a heavy grass campaign.
Verdasco always seems to find a way to lose and hasn't won a title on European clay since 2010, but Dolgo has a decent chance at the same price of around 17.016/1 if he's fit after a few injury issues of late.
Typically, Dolgo went through a fine period of form in the spring followed by a poor one and perhaps he's due to shine again, but the fact that he's never won a match here in three tries puts me off.
Delbonis defeated Roger Federer and Verdasco on his way to the final here 12 months ago, but doesn't seem to be in that kind of form right now, but Youzhny showed some good signs in Stuttgart last week and maybe he's ready to play well again.
It's certainly been a poor campaign for the Russian so far, but he does tend to move up and down the rankings markedly and I wouldn't count him out this week at around 26.025/1.
Giraldo has been in great form in 2014, with the high points being Houston, Barcelona and Madrid and he also performed creditably at Wimbledon before returning to the clay in a run to the last eight in Stuttgart last week.
In a wide-open top half it's worth taking a chance on one of the bigger priced players and with Giraldo hitting the ball bigger than ever he must have a shot at 34.033/1.
The bottom half is where number two seed and defending champion Fabio Fognini will try to defend his title points from and for company the Italian has opponents of the calibre of Berlocq, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Robredo, Joao Sousa, Philipp Kohlschreiber and Gilles Simon.
Fogna should go well, but what about Martin Klizan, who loves a good grind in heavy conditions and enjoys it in Germany after winning Munich as a qualifier a couple of months ago?
The big hitting Slovak gave us a nice winner at Wimbledon when he took the opening set from Nadal and would be one for the shortlist, but he pulled out of Stuttgart with a wrist injury, which is off putting.
Lukas Rosol could be dangerous after his Stuttgart run, but lacks consistency, which leads me to young guns Jiri Vesely and Dominic Thiem, who might be threats at big prices.
Vesely was disappointing last week and both have been playing Bundesliga since Wimbledon, which should have them in good touch on the clay after predictably average grass swings.
Both are very inexperienced on grass but much better on clay and their modest grass swings might have made them a little too big this week. If Delbonis can make a final here then Thiem or Vesely can and 81n/a and 101n/a are easy to back prices.
Kohlschreiber has a good draw, but he can't be trusted to produce at a shortish price like 15.014/1, although three of his last four titles have come at home in Germany. He's never been past the quarter finals here though.
I think we'll see a good priced winner or finalist in Hamburg this week and my portfolio will consist of Giraldo in the top half and the winner of Thiem and Vesely, who play in round one.
The winner should still be available at around 50.049/1 as they're scheduled to meet at 11am on Monday.
Recommended Bets (all back-to-lay)
Back Giraldo at 34.033/1
Back Vesely or Thiem at 50.049/1
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