The Perfect Punter says Nigeria will be celebrating against Bosnia
The Perfect Punter is out in Rio enjoying the World Cup, and he says that sometimes bettors need to go against the grain when making their selections...
Rio remains a baffling city of contrasts, with the World Cup a minefield for punters but a joy for spectators. Amidst all of the euphoria, though, here's some strange advice.
I love having interesting friends, in fact I'm going for dinner with one tonight: he's likely to get me in a fight at some point by loudly describing me as a Botafogo fan, but that's not the point. Life isn't dull when he's around, and that's how I like it. As punters though, we need to find boring friends. Not the kind who habitually tell us that "it's a mugs game" (don't they realise that we know it is?) but the kind who states the obvious. About everything. Time and time again. Hmmm. Let me explain.
The most important aspect of making gambling work is to be sure of your own opinion. You shouldn't wilfully try to hear the beat of a different drummer, to force your opinions onto a market, as that way smart-alecry and penury lies, but you should learn to calculate when you differ enough from regular opinion to make a bet worth having.
The market is the middle ground, the market is consensus, the market is, for want of a better word, boring. And that's where your new friend comes in. Because if you find a friend who states the obvious, then you have a friend against whom to test your views. And over a breakfast which seems to consist largely of stale wedding cake, jelly and coffee which tastes like it's laced with amphetamine, I've been picking the brains of my new friend, my obvious friend as my next series of bets roll into view.
So he thinks that it's a great tournament, that it would be great if Brazil win it, that it's great to be
here in the home of football. He thinks that Spain are too old, that Pepe deserved to be sent off because of his reputation, that the Dutch look a good bet to win it now, and that so do Argentina because you can't underestimate a team containing Lionel Messi.
He thinks that an African team may reach the semi-final, and could actually win it one day, and that so might an Asian team. And he did say, he actually said, that you should never underestimate the Germans.
I'm fully expecting a comment about the lottery of penalties as we veer drunkenly towards the knock-out phase. When I made a comment about drinking the coffee in Brazil giving me an insight into what taking crack must be like, he looked quizzical and disappointed, before launching into a daring third slice of toast.
So I asked him about some upcoming games, games that I feel the market may have slightly wrong, and I made notes on a napkin. We look towards Saturday, and Nigeria against Bosnia. He didn't really know much about Bosnia, but thought that they over-performed against Argentina, and that Nigeria looked wayward and disorganised against Iran, typical African indiscipline.
I felt that Argentina's stuttering performance in the Maracana was tailor-made for Bosnia, and that a lack of pressure on the Bosnians played into all of the things that they've always done so well.
A game like that is made for Misimovic and Pjanic, whereas a muscular Nigerian performance might not be. Iran defended better than I've ever seen Bosnia do, and there's a lot more subtlety to Nigeria than my friend seemed to think. They're a stupid price to win the game at 4.67/2 and I'm having some of that.
He felt that Russia passed the ball well and that Belgium were fortunate to beat Algeria. That Russia would be Belgium's biggest Group Stage test and that anyone who said that Belgium were a dark horse would be proved wrong. Given that he is exactly the kind of person who would describe Belgium as a dark horse this seemed a telling statement.
Much though I enjoyed Algeria, and the football fan in me wanted them to win, they were fortunate to still be ahead after 70 minutes, and Belgium showed admirable patience to bide their time and break them down. They'll only get better now, while Russia were dreadful. I'm shocked to see Belgium at odds against and I'll happily dive into a bit of 2.0621/20.
I'm sorely tempted to oppose South Korea against Algeria too, but my breakfast buddy had no opinion on them. "I didn't see the South Koreans." That led me to wonder how he'd managed to catch the Russians but I had no time for pedantry, as I was too busy being patronising and unpleasant.
Talking of those two qualities, the USA and Portugal brought us together. I was expecting him to tell me that Portugal would bounce back after their defeat by the Germans and that they were still favourites to get to the knock-out stage.
As I prepared to sneer, he told me that he thought Portugal were finished. That they may have the world's best player but they were a busted flush, while the USA may be just a little underrated. I agree, and I'm with him all the way. USA at 6.05/1 to beat Portugal is the final bet as we approach the weekend.
There's a holiday here in Brazil tomorrow as the country celebrates the same God that Fred thanked for helping him cheat. Time to take a breath, and time to make some new friends.
Recommended Bets
Back Nigeria to beat Bosnia @ 4.67/2 (140 to win 504)
Back Belgium to beat Russia @ 2.0811/10 (465 to win 502)
Back USA to beat Portugal @ 6.05/1 (100 to win 500)
Profit on settled bets: 384
What is the "Perfect Punter"?
In 2012, The Perfect Punter by Dave Farrar was published. Having reached a particular kind of punting meltdown, Dave decided to change his approach to betting and travel to the events that he had lost money on, trying to get closer to them, learn more about them, and turn a loss into a profit.
Dave is back, with his target the World Cup 2014. He’ll be in Rio for the duration of the tournament, and he’ll apply the Perfect Punter philosophy to the World Cup.
Dave has a budget of 100 per day of the World Cup with every bet designed to win 500.
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