Wimbledon 2014: Five potential men's first round upsets

Will Fernando Verdasco be heading for an early exit?

Fresh from landing a 21.020/1 winner on the grass of Rosmalen on Saturday, tennis expert Sean Calvert is hunting more value and has picked his top-five potential early upsets in the men's draw at Wimbledon...

The one and only grass court major gets underway on Monday on the lawns of the All England Club and as ever we're on the hunt for some likely first round shocks.

These are tough to come by nowadays in any men's grand slam, but Wimbledon tends to have very few, but when they do come they arrive in style, as last year's win by Steve Darcis over Rafa Nadal at 34.033/1 showed.

That was one of just a handful though and the others were a bit tame by comparison, with the 2.942/1 about Viktor Troicki over Janko Tipsarevic being the second biggest priced round one upset of 2013.

Marinko Matosevic vs Fernando Verdasco
This third career meeting between the Aussie and the Spaniard looks like it could be tough for Verdasco, who was beaten by 'Mad Dog' last time they met, which was on clay in Monte-Carlo last year.

Marinko was a 3.16n/a shot that day and he's shorter this time around at 2.9215/8 but he'll be much more relaxed after finally landing that elusive slam win at the French Open and after a good mini-season on grass.

Matosevic made the final of the Nottingham Challenger on grass and followed that by a run to the quarters at Queen's, beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Marin Cilic, while Nando struggled in Rosmalen.

It would be sadly typical of Verdasco to go from almost beating the eventual champion here last year to a first round loss, but that looks very much on the cards to me.

Luke Saville vs Dominic Thiem
This could be far harder for Thiem than some might think, given the Austrian's rise to the forefront of many tennis watchers' radars over the last year, with wins over several big names.

He is extremely inexperienced on grass though and has played just one senior match on it, which he lost badly to David Goffin at Queen's last week.

Since then he's also lost two exos at The Boodles on grass to Kevin Anderson and Jack Sock and he'll take on young Aussie Saville, who is far more experienced on the surface.

Saville was junior Wimbledon champ in 2011, runner-up in 2012 and qualified here by beating the likes of Thomaz Bellucci.

In all Luke has played 32 matches on grass to Thiem's five and this has all the hallmarks of a tricky one for the Austrian.

Stanislas Wawrinka vs Joao Sousa
Never really at home on the grass our Australian Open champion is often ripe for an upset on the green stuff, as defeats to James Ward and Simone Bolelli show and he's only been past round one here once since 2009.

Granted, he's now a major winner, but he's been struggling with illness in the last week or so and reports at home in Switzerland suggested that Stan had been in hospital undergoing treatment after cancelling some exos.

Sousa caused big problems for another Swiss in Roger Federer on grass in Halle a fortnight ago and has improved his grass game a fair amount in recent weeks.

This looks to me like the most likely of the big prices and the Portuguese can at least give Wawrinka something to think about.

Jiri Vesely vs Victor Estrella
The layers are putting a lot of faith in the hugely inexperienced Vesely in this one at a very short-looking 1.222/9.

The young Czech prospect has played just two matches on grass in his senior career and it seems as if this swing of the tour isn't overly important to him, as since the French Open he's shunned the grass in favour of two clay Challengers.

He won one and lost in the final of the other, but the lack of grass court preparation has to be a worry at that price.

Jiri's stiff movement and rather mechanical style doesn't seem to me like it will convert well to grass and Estrella, although hardly a grass court man either, has at least had some matches on it lately.

Indeed, the veteran beat Julien Benneteau on it at Queen's and should at least push Vesely here.

Sam Groth vs Alexandr Dolgopolov
The big-serving Aussie has a puncher's chance in this one against an opponent who has a poor record on grass and has been struggling with injury.

Dolgo withdrew at Queen's and then again last week in Eastbourne with a groin injury and he has to be rated as questionable for a possible five set battle with qualifier Groth.

This will be Groth's first appearance in the main draw at Wimbledon and he comes here in form after his best career year on tour and a very good performance on grass at Nottingham before qualifying at Roehampton.

Groth was a losing finalist in two tie breaks to Nick Kyrgios in Nottingham and took down Bolelli in final qualifying here and his serve is sure to cause problems if Dolgo isn't 100 percent fit.

All of the above have a good chance of providing Cash Out opportunities at nice prices and hopefully a few can get the job done.

Recommended Bets
Back Matosevic to beat Verdasco at 2.9215/8
Back Saville to beat Thiem at 3.02/1
Back Sousa to beat Wawrinka at 5.14/1
Back Estrella to beat Vesely at 5.14/1
Back Groth to beat Dolgopolov at 3.185/40