среда, 25 июня 2014 г.

Wimbledon 2014: Klizan's attacking intent can test Nadal early

Will Rafa struggle on the grass again today? Will Rafa struggle on the grass again today?

Tennis expert Sean Calvert enjoyed a great start to Wimbledon 2014 with a host of winners on Monday and he's back to preview the action on Day 2...

It was a fabulous start to proceedings on Day 1 of Wimbledon 2014 on Monday, with four winners from my five selections that played on the day.

Marinko Matosevic at 2.9215/8 and Luke Saville at 3.02/1 were the stars of the show from my five potential first round upsets list, while the daily tips of Benjamin Becker at 1.574/7 and Tim Puetz at 1.75/7 were also comfortable winners.

Only a couple of pretty awful tie breaks from Sam Groth and a fitter than expected opponent in Alexandr Dolgopolov stopped a clean sweep and the remaining two on that list of possible upsets play on Tuesday.

Rain put an end to Monday's play at around 8pm, but the forecast for Tuesday is pretty decent, with just a chance of an afternoon shower.

I'm itching to take on Milos Raonic and Jerzy Janowicz, who both play today, but the opposition looks feeble, with Matt Ebden hopeless in most conditions and Somdev Devvarman lacking the power on grass.

With little obvious value in a lot of the match odds in these early matches it might well play to play the first set correct score in some today, with the slick courts aiding servers.

The 7-6 correct score will pay around 6.05/1 in most cases and the ones on my shortlist today are Raonic, Gilles Muller, Ivo Karlovic and Jerzy Janowicz.

Of all of them I like Muller to beat Julien Benneteau 7-6 at 6.5n/a and this represents a very good Cash Out opportunity.

Muller has been in rare form in the lead up to Wimbledon, winning Challengers like they're going out of fashion and he's compiled a 40-9 record this season already, with four titles and he qualified here without dropping a set.

The big leftie played eight tie breaks in his four matches on the grass in Nottingham a few weeks ago and Benny is likely to struggle to break him early on.

On skiddy, early season grass it can take a while for returners to get into the match and there are plenty of opportunities around today, of which I like Muller the most.

I've taken Stan Wawrinka and Jiri Vesely on today in the final two of my 'upsets' article and I'm tempted to do the same with Rafa Nadal, except I cannot see him losing early here again.

The Spaniard will be determined not to after Steve Darcis and Lukas Rosol, but Martin Klizan has the kind of attacking game that can worry Rafa, as he showed on clay at the French Open last year.

Again, the early part of the match holds the value and the set one winner market, with Klizan at 4.57/2 to win it looks another good Cash Out choice, as does Roger Federer to land a 6-0 set over Paulo Lorenzi at around 4.57/2.

I'd fancy Lukas Kubot to beat Jan-Lennard Struff at around 2.01/1, but he injured his ankle in Halle and withdrew from Rosmalen, which suggests he's only playing here because he has a lot of points to defend from a year ago.

Another one that's fallen by the wayside is Igor Sijsling, who takes a 3-0 career series lead into his clash with Philipp Kohlschrieber today, but the Dutchman has been suffering from illness and comes here undercooked.

There is the usual selection of players who don't intend to hang around long on grass and these include Lorenzi, Pere Riba, Federico Delbonis, and Daniel Gimeno-Traver, but I prefer taking a bit of a chance on another not known for grass court play in Marcel Granollers.

Nicolas Mahut has a poor record at Wimbledon for someone who's had plenty of success elsewhere on grass and for me it's too slow for him here, as his results tend to show.

That farcical match with John Isner aside, Mahut has lost in the first round four times and never been past the third round.

He's been beaten by the likes of Kristof Vliegen here and even Lorenzi took him to five sets two years ago, while Tommy Robredo beat him in three here last time.

Granollers' record here isn't great, but he doesn't tend to tank and over 38.5 total games looks very good here at around 1.910/11 looks decent, with a grind looking likely.

Recommended Bet
Back over 38.5 total games in Granollers/Mahut at 1.910/11

Best Cash Out Opportunities
Back Muller to win set one 7-6 at 6.5n/a
Back Klizan to win set one at 4.57/2

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